Category Archives: Economics

Cracking Down on Oil Market Manipulation

This coming Saturday will mark the one year anniversary of the creation by the Obama administration of the “Financial Fraud Enforcement Working Group” (see the MSNBC article from 4/21/2011 entitled “Obama says new task force will examine gas prices”, available on the web at http://on.msnbc.com/JdlbDx). The article referenced below (entitled “Cracking Down on Oil Market Manipulation”) is from the White House blog and is dated 4/17/2012.

While the notion that “high” gas prices result from “price gouging” by a cadre of unsavory and greedy oil companies, energy traders, and speculators makes for a provocative political narrative, it’s really bad economics. As canards go, this one is particularly favored by politicians; indeed (as you can see from the time-date stamps of the April 2011 MSNBC and April 2012 White House blog articles), you can almost set your watch on these kinds of things.

I wrote a blog posting about the economics of “high” gas prices on April 23, 2011 (source: http://blog.garven.com/2011/04/23/is-gas-price-gouging-to-blame-for-high-gas-prices), and many, if not most of the points I raised in that article are as applicable today as they were then (now the geopolitical risk du jour is Iran; back then it was Libya)…

 
Cracking Down on Oil Market Manipulation | The White House
www.whitehouse.gov

“President Obama announces a new series of steps to strengthen oversight over the energy markets.”

Lies My Newspaper Told Me

An article entitled “Lies My Newspaper Told Me” is a somewhat humorous (and R-rated) essay that I bumped into this morning; The 5 “lies” are:

1. Home solar is the wave of the future
2. Eating local will save the earth
3. Hybrid cars will solve our carbon woes
4. Home ownership: your best investment
5. Hands-free cellphones make multitasking effortless

What piqued my interest was the author’s reference to an important insight by the 19th century British economist William Jevons called the “Jevons Paradox”. The “Jevons Paradox” predicts that an “unintended” consequence of technological progress (e.g., hybrid cars and CFL’s) is that increased energy efficiency encourages encourage more (rather than less) energy consumption. So the same person who would otherwise be careful about turning her incandescent lights off and driving her gas powered car less will think nothing of leaving her CFL’s on and driving her hybrid car more. Basically, by lowering the cost of energy use at the level of the individual, the “paradox” is that technological innovations such as hybrid cars and CFL’s may actually increase overall energy consumption by society.

On the social scientific study of religion

I’d like to give a “shout-out” to University of Washington political scientist (and Baylor ISR Distinguished Senior Fellow) Tony Gill for his “Research on Religion” podcast series. Research on Religion (AKA “RoR”; see http://www.researchonreligion.org/) is a weekly podcast series which is devoted to the social scientific study of religion.

Since I commute regularly from my home in Austin, TX to my Baylor University office (which is located 1-1/2 hours away in Waco, TX), this gives me plenty of time to listen to podcasts. By far and away, my favorite podcast series is (not surprisingly) Econtalk (located at http://www.econtalk.org/). Both EconTalk and RoR follow a similar format, in that there is a new, roughly 1 hour long podcast every week that features an interview between the program host (Russ Roberts on EconTalk and Tony Gill on RoR) and a guest who has typically published a book or article on an important/relevant/timely topic.

Anyway, the direct iTunes link for RoR is http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/research-on-religion/id401047404. The direct iTunes link for EconTalk is http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/econtalk/id135066958.

Margaret Thatcher on the economics and social consequences of income inequality

Here’s a remarkable video of former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s last House of Commons speech (recorded 11/22/1990) on the economics and social consequences of income inequality; she also opines presciently about various dysfunctional aspects of the yet-to-be-formed economic and monetary union of various EU member states (i.e., the so-called eurozone; cf. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) and the European Central Bank (cf. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). Hat tip to Dan Mitchell (cf. http://bit.ly/uukWhc)…

 

Monthly Unemployment Rates, January 2001-August 2011

In commemoration of President Obama’s speech tonight, here’s a time series graph of monthly unemployment rates from January 2001 –  August 2011 (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics):

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Interestingly, here’s an Internet polling graph captured minutes after President Obama’s speech came to a close; it is very bimodal, as is the current mood of our country (source: http://on.wsj.com/qqMLyI)

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Finally, here’s the latest from the prediction markets concerning the odds of President Obama winning re-election in 2012:

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Make the rich pay their “fair” share!

Another political narrative/canard that you can “set your watch to” (other than the gas “price-gouging” canard) is this notion that the so-called “rich” people (i.e., folks other than you and me) don’t pay their “fair” share of taxes.  In the current policy environment, one of the two major political parties wants to retain the Bush era tax rates for the “non-rich” (defined as  families earning less than $250,000 per year and individuals earning less than than $200,000 per year) and revert back to the Clinton-era tax rates for the “rich”.   Indeed, in a recent speech, President Obama noted that “…at a time when the tax burden on the wealthy is at its lowest level in half a century, the most fortunate among us can afford to pay a little more.”

I am curious what President Obama’s source is for this statement. Clearly, the top marginal personal income tax rate is considerably lower now than it has been in the past; e.g., 50 years ago (when JFK was in office), the top marginal personal income tax rate was 91%, whereas today it stands at 35% (under Clinton, it was 39.6%).  However, just because the top marginal personal income tax rate is lower now than it was under previous Democratic administrations, this does not automatically translate into a lower tax “burden” per se (assuming that “burden” is defined as the actual dollar amount relative to income that people actually pay).  Indeed, my Baylor colleague Dave VanHoose pointed out a recently published Tax Foundation article entitled “No Country Leans on Upper-Income Households as Much as U.S.” which documents that the U.S. has by far and away the most progressive personal income tax system amongst 24 OECD countries.  Here’s a particularly important table from this article:

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Quoting from the Tax Foundation article, “…the top 10 percent of households in the U.S. pays 45.1 percent of all income taxes (both personal income and payroll taxes combined) in the country. Italy is the only other country in which the top 10 percent of households pays more than 40 percent of the income tax burden (42.2%). Meanwhile, the average tax burden for the top decile of households in OECD countries is 31.6 percent.”  Thus, in the U.S., the current policy is to have “…the wealthiest households in this country pay a share of the tax burden that is one-third greater than their share of the nation’s income.”  Furthermore, this share (see column 3 in the table above) is 24 percentage points higher than the average for the countries listed there.  Apparently the ante for “rich” Americans may be going up!

 

Make the rich pay their "fair" share!

Another political narrative/canard that you can “set your watch to” (other than the gas “price-gouging” canard) is this notion that the so-called “rich” people (i.e., folks other than you and me) don’t pay their “fair” share of taxes.  In the current policy environment, one of the two major political parties wants to retain the Bush era tax rates for the “non-rich” (defined as  families earning less than $250,000 per year and individuals earning less than than $200,000 per year) and revert back to the Clinton-era tax rates for the “rich”.   Indeed, in a recent speech, President Obama noted that “…at a time when the tax burden on the wealthy is at its lowest level in half a century, the most fortunate among us can afford to pay a little more.”

I am curious what President Obama’s source is for this statement. Clearly, the top marginal personal income tax rate is considerably lower now than it has been in the past; e.g., 50 years ago (when JFK was in office), the top marginal personal income tax rate was 91%, whereas today it stands at 35% (under Clinton, it was 39.6%).  However, just because the top marginal personal income tax rate is lower now than it was under previous Democratic administrations, this does not automatically translate into a lower tax “burden” per se (assuming that “burden” is defined as the actual dollar amount relative to income that people actually pay).  Indeed, my Baylor colleague Dave VanHoose pointed out a recently published Tax Foundation article entitled “No Country Leans on Upper-Income Households as Much as U.S.” which documents that the U.S. has by far and away the most progressive personal income tax system amongst 24 OECD countries.  Here’s a particularly important table from this article:

Capture

Quoting from the Tax Foundation article, “…the top 10 percent of households in the U.S. pays 45.1 percent of all income taxes (both personal income and payroll taxes combined) in the country. Italy is the only other country in which the top 10 percent of households pays more than 40 percent of the income tax burden (42.2%). Meanwhile, the average tax burden for the top decile of households in OECD countries is 31.6 percent.”  Thus, in the U.S., the current policy is to have “…the wealthiest households in this country pay a share of the tax burden that is one-third greater than their share of the nation’s income.”  Furthermore, this share (see column 3 in the table above) is 24 percentage points higher than the average for the countries listed there.  Apparently the ante for “rich” Americans may be going up!

 

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Is gas “price-gouging” to blame for high gas prices?

President Obama raised this question a couple of days ago during a “town hall” meeting in California. The MSNBC article entitled “Obama says new task force will examine gas prices” quotes him as saying, “”We are going to make sure that no one is taking advantage of the American people for their own short-term gain.” This article also quotes the President as saying that “The task force will focus some of its investigation on “the role of traders and speculators” in the oil-price surge”.

An article which appeared in the The Globe and Mail entitled “U.S. launches probe into energy prices”, notes that “U.S. Attorney-General Eric Holder made no allegation of wrongdoing against companies or speculators on Thursday. But the multi-agency Financial Fraud Enforcement Working Group will play a key role in identifying fraud in the energy market, he said” (italics added for emphasis).

While the notion that “high” gas prices result from “price gouging” by a cadre of unsavory and greedy oil companies, energy traders, and speculators makes for a provocative political narrative, it’s really bad economics. As canards go, this one is particularly favored by the political elites; indeed, as Tim Evans, energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspectives, told Reuters news service, “You can almost set your watch on these kinds of things.”

I can think of several reasons why gas prices are high compared with historical norms and likely to remain so for some time:

  1. Rising demand from emerging markets (particularly China and India)
  2. Risks of supply chain disruptions due to the ongoing political upheavals in Libya and the Middle East
  3. Domestic supply constraints due to the ongoing deepwater drilling moratorium in the Gulf of Mexico
  4. The ongoing depreciation of the value of the US dollar vis-a-vis foreign currencies. The Federal Reserve’s major currencies index (which measures the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of currencies in the broad index that circulate widely outside the country of issue) currently stands at 20–year lows. Since this past January, the value of the US dollar compared with other major foreign currencies has fallen by nearly 5%. Since trading in the global oil markets is dollar denominated, some of the rise in gas prices can be attributed to this factor alone.

Therefore, in order for gas prices to become cheaper for Americans, this will require some combination of 1) a slowdown in the global economy, 2) a favorable resolution of political risks in the Middle East, 3) a credible commitment on the part of the US government to rescind its deepwater drilling moratorium, and/or 4) a recovery in the value of the US dollar vis-a-vis other currencies.

Is gas "price-gouging" to blame for high gas prices?

President Obama raised this question a couple of days ago during a “town hall” meeting in California. The MSNBC article entitled “Obama says new task force will examine gas prices” quotes him as saying, “”We are going to make sure that no one is taking advantage of the American people for their own short-term gain.” This article also quotes the President as saying that “The task force will focus some of its investigation on “the role of traders and speculators” in the oil-price surge”.

An article which appeared in the The Globe and Mail entitled “U.S. launches probe into energy prices”, notes that “U.S. Attorney-General Eric Holder made no allegation of wrongdoing against companies or speculators on Thursday. But the multi-agency Financial Fraud Enforcement Working Group will play a key role in identifying fraud in the energy market, he said” (italics added for emphasis).

While the notion that “high” gas prices result from “price gouging” by a cadre of unsavory and greedy oil companies, energy traders, and speculators makes for a provocative political narrative, it’s really bad economics. As canards go, this one is particularly favored by the political elites; indeed, as Tim Evans, energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspectives, told Reuters news service, “You can almost set your watch on these kinds of things.”

I can think of several reasons why gas prices are high compared with historical norms and likely to remain so for some time:

  1. Rising demand from emerging markets (particularly China and India)
  2. Risks of supply chain disruptions due to the ongoing political upheavals in Libya and the Middle East
  3. Domestic supply constraints due to the ongoing deepwater drilling moratorium in the Gulf of Mexico
  4. The ongoing depreciation of the value of the US dollar vis-a-vis foreign currencies. The Federal Reserve’s major currencies index (which measures the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of currencies in the broad index that circulate widely outside the country of issue) currently stands at 20–year lows. Since this past January, the value of the US dollar compared with other major foreign currencies has fallen by nearly 5%. Since trading in the global oil markets is dollar denominated, some of the rise in gas prices can be attributed to this factor alone.

Therefore, in order for gas prices to become cheaper for Americans, this will require some combination of 1) a slowdown in the global economy, 2) a favorable resolution of political risks in the Middle East, 3) a credible commitment on the part of the US government to rescind its deepwater drilling moratorium, and/or 4) a recovery in the value of the US dollar vis-a-vis other currencies.

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