Since President Bush recently nominated Judge Samuel A. Alito to replace (retiring) Sandra Day O’Connor on the Supreme Court, this must mean that tradesports.com has a new senate confirmation contract trading, aka SC.CONFIRM.ALITO. On its first day of trading, the price for this contract ranged from $75 to $84.90. Lately the trading range has narrowed somewhat at a marginally higher price level (now $88.50), implying nearly a 90% likelihood of Senate confirmation. Here’s the graph over the lifetime of the contract:
For what it’s worth, I am one of four people (along with Jeff Holland, Liongate Capital Management founder, John W. Howton Rockbrook Capital founder, and John C. Bogle, founder and former CEO of the Vanguard) interviewed in “Finance to the Rescue”, an article that appears in the Fall 2005 issue of Baylor Business Review. My interview is on the topic of cat bonds, which is a topic that I have previously blogged about.