Since President Bush recently nominated Judge Samuel A. Alito to replace (retiring) Sandra Day O’Connor on the Supreme Court, this must mean that has a new senate confirmation contract trading, aka SC.CONFIRM.ALITO.  On its first day of trading, the price for this contract ranged from $75 to $84.90.  Lately the trading range has narrowed somewhat at a marginally higher price level (now $88.50), implying nearly a 90% likelihood of Senate confirmation.  Here’s the graph over the lifetime of the contract:

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