Prediction Markets Update (September 16, 2008)

Prediction markets continue to behave in a quite boring fashion. Once again, the changes in the 2008.PRES.McCAIN (down .2 at 51.5) and 2008.PRES.OBAMA (up .6 at 47.2) contract prices are rather marginal. It continues to appear, based upon my (somewhat arbitrary) cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes, that Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain are virtually tied (with 265 and 265 Electoral College votes respectively), with only Colorado (and its 9 Electoral College votes) “undecided”. However, New Hampshire is moving perilously close to re-entering the “undecided” category, since the last trade on NEWHAMPSHIRE.DEM was at 56.5 whereas the last trade on NEWHAMPSHIRE.REP was at 44.8

In keeping with my previous daily election blog entries, Nate Silver’s PECOTA model (see FiveThirtyEight) remains unchanged from yesterday, allocating 288 Electoral College votes to Mr. McCain and 250 electoral College votes to Mr. Obama.

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