Prediction Markets Update (September 19, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 51.5, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 47.8 (compared with 51.7 and 47.7 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

Although the overall contract prices didn’t move very much, the state-by-state contracts imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 273-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Colorado (9 Electoral College votes) has moved into Obama’s column, whereas Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) has re-entered “swing” state status, joining Nevada (5 Electoral College votes) and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes) as the “swing” states du jour.

Addendum: September 19, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (273): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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