Intrade has opened a new market on whether the proposed bill (AKA “TARP”, an acronym for Troubled Asset Relief Program) to bailout financial firms will pass Congress by the end of the month. The contract trades as BAILOUT.APPROVE.SEP08. Open for less than 24 hours, the market has already gained significant trading volumes, and an early verdict: the bill is far from a sure thing.
The likelihood the bill would pass by September 30th initially traded between 55% and 65% for much of yesterday. It hit an overnight high of 95% before settling at 74.8% as of 5AM CST this morning.