Prediction Markets Update (September 24, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 54.6 , whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 44.9 (compared with 51.6 and 47.9 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 269-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, the prices of the NEWHAMPSHIRE.DEM and NEWHAMPSHIRE.REP contracts have changed enough so that at 55 and 49 respectively, I would now put New Hampshire 4 Electoral College votes) back into the “swing” state category along with Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com is unchanged from yesterday, as it continues to give Mr. Obama a 309 to 229 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 24, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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