Prediction Markets Update (September 26, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 56.9, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 42.2 (compared with 56.7 and 43.5 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 269-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Based upon this criterion, Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) would be considered “swing” states. However, Virginia (current price: 55), New Hampshire (current price: 54), and Ohio (current price: 53.4) are definitely leaning Mr. Obama’s way. Nevada is pretty much split down the middle between the two candidates (NEVADA.DEM’s price is 48, compared with NEVADA.REP’s price of 49.8). Also, I could help but notice that Florida is on the cusp of becoming a “swing” state; currently FLORIDA.DEM’s price is 44, compared with FLORIDA.REP’s price of 55.1).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 310 to 228 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 26, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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