Prediction Markets Update (September 27, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 57.8, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 41.8 (compared with 56.9 and 42.2 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 269-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Although Mr. Obama has not increased his Electoral College total since yesterday, both Florida (27 Electoral College votes) and North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) have now moved out of Mr. McCain’s column and assumed “swing state” status, along with Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes). As I noted yesterday, it was apparent that Florida was on the verge of becoming a “swing” state, so this change does not come as a surprise.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 310 to 228 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 27, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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