Prediction Markets Update (September 28, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 58.2, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 41.6 (compared with 57.8 and 41.8 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 269-200 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The only change from yesterday is that North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) has (barely) moved back into Mr. McCain’s column. This leaves Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) as the “swing” states du jour.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 325.5 to 212.5 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 28, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (200): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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