Prediction Markets Update (September 29, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 62.1, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 38 (compared with 58.2 and 41.6 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 286-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Mr. Obama has “picked up” New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes) and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes), whereas Mr. McCain has “re-lost” North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes); North Carolina has slid back into “swing” state status. The other remaining states which have “swing” state status today include Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 325.5 to 212.5 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 29, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (286): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4)New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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