Prediction Markets Update (September 30, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 64.1, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 35.7 (compared with 62.1 and 38 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 273-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Virginia has (just barely) fallen from the Obama column; this is the only change from yesterday. The current “swing” states include Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), with Virginia, Nevada and Ohio leaning strongly toward Obama (with prices of 54.5, 54.4, and 54 respectively) and Florida and North Carolina nearly tied.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 330.6 to 207.4 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 30, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (273): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4)New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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