US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles – Forecasts & Trends

US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles – Forecasts & Trends According to this article, “the fertility rate needed to maintain the current US population is 2.1 children born to women of child-bearing age… the US fertility rate among women is now only 1.9 children and falling.” Apparently the US is in much better shape in this regard than Europe; e.g., according to a recent Forbes article entitled “What’s Really Behind Europe’s Decline? It’s The Birth Rates, Stupid“, the fertility rate among women in Spain presently stands at 1.4 children and falling.  This and similar “birth dearths” in other Mediterranean countries such as Greece, Italy and Portugal are contributing significantly to the economic malaise in Europe.  The above referenced Forbes article notes,

“Essentially, Spain and other Mediterranean countries bought into northern Europe’s liberal values, and low birthrates, but did so without the economic wherewithal to pay for it. You can afford a Nordic welfare state, albeit increasingly precariously, if your companies and labor force are highly skilled or productive. But Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal lack that kind of productive industry; much of the growth stemmed from real estate and tourism. Infrastructure development was underwritten by the EU, and the country has become increasingly dependent on foreign investors. Unlike Sweden or Germany, Spain cannot count now on immigrants to stem their demographic decline and generate new economic energy. Although 450,000 people, largely from Muslim countries, still arrive annually, over 580,000 Spaniards are heading elsewhere — many of them to northern Europe and some to traditional places of immigration such as Latin America. Germany, which needs 200,000 immigrants a year to keep its factories humming, has emerged as a preferred destination.”
]]>

US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles – Forecasts & Trends

US Birth Rate Hits New Low – A Nation of Singles – Forecasts & Trends

According to this article, “the fertility rate needed to maintain the current US population is 2.1 children born to women of child-bearing age… the US fertility rate among women is now only 1.9 children and falling.”

Apparently the US is in much better shape in this regard than Europe; e.g., according to a recent Forbes article entitled “What’s Really Behind Europe’s Decline? It’s The Birth Rates, Stupid“, the fertility rate among women in Spain presently stands at 1.4 children and falling.  This and similar “birth dearths” in other Mediterranean countries such as Greece, Italy and Portugal are contributing significantly to the economic malaise in Europe.  The above referenced Forbes article notes,

“Essentially, Spain and other Mediterranean countries bought into northern Europe’s liberal values, and low birthrates, but did so without the economic wherewithal to pay for it. You can afford a Nordic welfare state, albeit increasingly precariously, if your companies and labor force are highly skilled or productive. But Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal lack that kind of productive industry; much of the growth stemmed from real estate and tourism. Infrastructure development was underwritten by the EU, and the country has become increasingly dependent on foreign investors.

Unlike Sweden or Germany, Spain cannot count now on immigrants to stem their demographic decline and generate new economic energy. Although 450,000 people, largely from Muslim countries, still arrive annually, over 580,000 Spaniards are heading elsewhere — many of them to northern Europe and some to traditional places of immigration such as Latin America. Germany, which needs 200,000 immigrants a year to keep its factories humming, has emerged as a preferred destination.”

The End of the University as We Know It

The End of the University as We Know It – Nathan Harden – The American Interest Magazine.

Hat tip to Jonathan Warren for pointing this article out to me.  For what it’s worth, here are some thoughts I have concerning this article.

It does seem that the “business models” of many colleges and universities are quite broken. I also agree with the author (one Nathan Harden) that the “massive open online courses” (otherwise known as “MOOCs”) offered by the Coursera, Udacity, and edX represent a highly disruptive innovation and that they will help contribute to the demise of many institutions (particularly academically marginal ones). However, Mr. Harden’s article reminds me of the kinds of articles which regularly appeared in the media at the dawning of the commercial Internet way back in the mid-to-late 90’s; the conventional wisdom back then was that the Internet would bring about the demise of intermediaries (so-called “middlemen”) in any number of businesses through a process commonly referred to as “disintermediation”.

While it is true that some types of intermediaries have vanished or are in the process of vanishing (large scale brick-and-mortar record and video stores like Tower Records and Blockbuster readily come to mind), it’s not like the music and movie industries are going away.  What’s changed is how the supply chains for these industries are organized; particularly the methods of distribution.   I think we can expect similar competitive pressures on higher education; although it remains to be seen what the overall effect of MOOCs will be, perhaps MOOCs are part of a larger (self-correcting) market reaction against the unsustainable financial trajectory that the system has been on for the past quarter century.

So where does this leave colleges and universities like my school (Baylor University in Waco, TX) that are academically competent but clearly not in the same league as academic elites like Harvard, Stanford, Princeton, etc.?  My Baylor colleague John Martin is fond of pointing out that the saving grace for brick-and-mortar colleges and universities like Baylor is that these institutions provide a particularly important service to parents of college-aged students which goes well beyond the task of providing education.  Specifically, the Baylors of the world also provide parents with relatively safe environments where said students can be warehoused away from home and have a few years to grow up. I don’t think that aspect of the college experience scales particularly well to the online environment.

Thus, I see online education as more of a complement rather than a substitute for (good quality) brick-and-mortar colleges and universities primarily serving the 18-25 year old age cohort. For adult/continuing education, online education represents a viable alternative to many (particularly lower quality, endowment-poor) brick-and-mortar colleges and universities.

Ruining Christmas: An Economist's Guide

Ruining Christmas: An Economist’s Guide – Forbes. Quoting from this Forbes article, “… economists are the wet blankets of the world. We can ruin almost any proposal and almost any situation with just a couple of analytical tools and the words “unintended consequences.” The author of this essay “ruins” Christmas by looking at this beloved holiday through an economist’s lens…]]>

Ruining Christmas: An Economist’s Guide

Ruining Christmas: An Economist’s Guide – Forbes.

Quoting from this Forbes article, “… economists are the wet blankets of the world. We can ruin almost any proposal and almost any situation with just a couple of analytical tools and the words “unintended consequences.” The author of this essay “ruins” Christmas by looking at this beloved holiday through an economist’s lens…

Aetna CEO Sees Obama Health Law Doubling Some Premiums

Aetna CEO Sees Obama Health Law Doubling Some Premiums – Bloomberg.

From Bloomberg News: According to Aetna Inc.’s chief executive officer, health insurance premiums may as much as double for some small businesses and individual buyers in the U.S. when the Affordable Care Act’s major provisions start in 2014…

The right-to-work dilemma

Charles Krauthammer: The right-to-work dilemma – The Washington Post.

Charles Krauthammer writes, “For all the fury and fistfights outside the Lansing Capitol, what happened in Michigan this week was a simple accommodation to reality. The most famously unionized state, birthplace of the United Auto Workers, royalty of the American working class, became right-to-work.”

Mitt Romney’s legacy

“LIKE a crisis, a good scapegoat is a terrible thing to waste. Just now Mitt Romney is proving a fine one for Republicans…”  This is an Interesting essay from the current issue of the Economist which provides a fairly detailed followup to Josh Barro’s recent Bloomberg article.  I particularly liked the point made in the article concerning the need to “… draw a distinction between those in need of state help and those for whom it is a “way of life”.”