Category Archives: Economics

Three Million Imaginary Jobs II

Following up on an earlier posting about the Obama Administration’s “jobs created or saved” metric, I’d like to call attention to Greg Mankiw’s posting from yesterday entitled “The CEA’s Impossible Job”.  I also learned the following Latin phrase from this article: Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

Also, the following two postings about the Obama Administration’s “jobs created or saved” metric which date back to November 2009 are worth a second look:

  • In the Battle for Stimulus Jobs, Shoe Store Owner Tells War Story, by Louise Radnofsky (published November 2, 2009

Here’s a practical, step-by-step guide to “creating or saving” 9 jobs for only $889! 

  • Stimulus and the Jobless Recovery, by Ed Lazear (published November 1, 2009)

“Jobs ‘created or saved’ is meaningless. What matters is net job gain or loss, and that means the unemployment rate.”

Assorted Links (7/13/2010)

Eugene White: Dodd-Frank, Meet William Jennings Bryan – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In the Wall Street Journal, Eugene White explains why a ‘Financial Crisis Fund,’ similar to current proposals, was rejected over a century ago during the financial crisis of 1893.”

Amity Shlaes: FDR, Obama and ‘Confidence’ – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Amity Shlaes writes in The Wall Street Journal that demonizing business deepened the Great Depression. The Obama White House can learn from Roosevelt’s mistakes.”

William McGurn: Obama’s Immigration Fakery – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Main Street columnist William McGurn says that in 2007, Barack Obama helped derail immigration reform as a junior senator from Illinois. As president, he is not serious about a bipartisan bill today.”

Brian Riedl: The Bush Tax Cuts and the Deficit Myth – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal Heritage Foundation fellow Brian Riedl explains that runaway government spending, not declining tax revenues, is the reason the U.S. faces dramatic budget shortfalls for years to come.”

Two Thumbs Down on the Financial-Reform Bill – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com

freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com

Economics Nobel laureate Gary Becker’s take on the financial-reform bill; he particularly dislikes the facts that this bill 1) adds regulations and rules about many activities that had little or nothing to do with the (financial) crisis, and 2) essentially says nothing about Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae.

Bret Stephens: Dr. Berwick and That Fabulous Cuban Health Care – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Global View columnist Bret Stephens writes about the death march of progressive medicine.”

Op-Ed Columnist – An Economy of Grinds – NYTimes.com

www.nytimes.com

“The slow economic recovery is shutting out the small businesses that are vital to its success.”

Fund Track: Collar Fund Offers Low Risk, Low Reward – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“A cautiously bullish strategy is the mainstay of the $31 million Collar Fund, whose portfolio has low enough risk to inspire comparisons to a bond fund, but whose hedged exposure to stocks aim for stronger returns than bonds.” The Collar Fund represents an interesting application of some very simple financial engineering; this is the sort of stuff we study in my “Options, Futures and Other Derivatives” course at Baylor University…”

Correlation Soars on S&P 500 Shares – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Stocks are trading in lock-step more than at any time since the 1987 crash, and the trend has some analysts concerned.”

2010 World Cup comes to a close – The Big Picture – Boston.com

www.boston.com

Who Pays for ObamaCare? – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“The Wall Street Journal on what Donald Berwick and Joe the Plumber both understand.”

Lessons From the Swedish Welfare State – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Swedish economists Andreas Bergh and Magnus Henrekson cite research that shows bigger government is associated with slower economic growth. Sweden is a prime example. It’s recent performance is due to market-oriented policies and a declining government share of GDP.

Pat Michaels: The Climategate Whitewash Continues: Don’t Believe the ‘Independent Reviews’

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, climate scientist Patrick J. Michaels criticizes the recent exoneration of charges that the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. He says that the members of the committee had a conflict of interest and that the review work was shoddy.”

Fred Barnes: Obama’s Entitlement Opportunity – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Fred Barnes notes that the president’s deficit commission isn’t likely to agree on tax increases. But it might recommend Social Security reform.”

Book review: Getting It Wrong – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Edward Kosner reviews W. Joseph Campbell’s Getting It Wrong: Ten of the Greatest Misreported Stories in American Journalism.”

Assorted Links (7/2/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately:

Scientists Discover Keys to Long Life – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“By analyzing the DNA of the world’s oldest people, Boston University scientists said Thursday they have discovered a genetic signature of longevity. They expect soon to offer a test that could let people learn whether they have the constitution to live to a very old age.”

Charles Krauthammer – Terror — and candor in describing the Islamist ideology behind it

www.washingtonpost.com

“The administration’s refusal to identify terrorists reflects a dangerous cowardice.”

Brad Greenberg: How Missionaries Lost Their Chariots of Fire and Why They Should Add the Gospel Back

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal’s Houses of Worship column, Brad Greenberg says that over the past century, Protestant mission workers have moved from spreading the Gospel to do doing good works, and says that they should be doing both.”

Paul H. Rubin: Why Is the Gulf Cleanup So Slow? – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In the Wall Street Journal, Paul Rubin writes that there are obvious actions to speed up the Gulf oil spill, but the government oddly resists taking them.”

Kim Strassel: The Obama Trade Games – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In the Wall Street Journal, Potomac Watch columnist Kimberley Strassel writes that free trade is making a convenient comeback in the Obama administration.”

E.J. McMahon: The Empire State’s Stimulus Addiction – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, E.J. McMahon writes that New York will never get its budget under control as long as Washington feeds its spending habit.”

Daily Kos Founder Says Polling Data Was Faked – The Numbers Guy – WSJ

blogs.wsj.com

“In an unusually public rift, a prominent left-wing political Web site is renouncing polling it had commissioned and published and is suing its former pollster.”

Short-term insurance buyers in Massachusetts

theincidentaleconomist.com

“Further evidence on how consumers in the real world “game” insurance mandates – this is a cautionary tale for Obamacare, given that ObamaCare is in essence a nationwide implementation of RomneyCare…”

Keynes vs. Alesina. Alesina Who? – BusinessWeek

www.businessweek.com

“Economist Alberto Alesina argues that austerity triggers growth.”

The Problem With Food Aid – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com

nytimes.com

“Planet Money and Frontline report on the distorting effects of foreign food aid on local food economies, particularly in Haiti. People don’t buy rice when they can get it for free.”

It Depends on What the Definition of ‘Austerity’ Is

www.american.com

“Paul Krugman says we are in a ‘new era of austerity.’ When will government spending be enough? … In the last ten years, the private sector has, on average, grown 1.2 percent annually, while the government has, on average, grown 3.5 percent annually.”

John B. Taylor: The Dodd-Frank Financial Fiasco – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Stanford University economist John B. Taylor says the Congressional financial reform bill all but guarantees bailouts as far as the eye can see, while failing to address real problems like Fan and Fred and our outdated bankruptcy code.”

No Way to Help Small Business

www.american.com

“The need of many small businesses to raise money has led to several proposals to give small businesses more access to credit. Will they work?”

Menace to Mobility

www.american.com

“Comparing the administration’s new transportation plan to a Soviet ‘five-year plan’ would be unfair to the Soviets.”

Assorted Links (6/29/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately:

Allan Meltzer: Why Obamanomics Has Failed – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Carnegie Mellon University economist Allan H. Meltzer says the Obama administration’s policies have introduced uncertainty about future taxes and regulations. This inhibits investment and job growth.”

If You Have to Be Wrong, How Can You Admit It More Easily? – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com

www.nytimes.com

“Making admissions of error easier.”

Cash for Clunkers: A Retrospective

www.american.com

“Top-down industrial policy carried out through the sheer force of incentives is welcomed by behavioralist Washington.”

The Unemployment Insurance Crisis

www.american.com

“As of this summer, unemployment insurance trust funds in 30 states were insolvent.”

Fred Barnes: King of Pork—and Proud of It – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Fred Barnes writes that the late Robert Byrd made the most of his time in the Senate.”

Rupert Darwall: Britain Tries Fiscal Austerity – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Rupert Darwall writes in The Wall Street Journal that Keynesianism goes out of fashion in London.”

Randy Barnett: The Supreme Court’s Gun Showdown – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Randy Barnett writes that thanks to five Justices, the right to keep and bear arms is now protected from state interference. And thanks to Clarence Thomas, an important clause in the Constitution has risen from the grave.”

Bill Wilson’s Gospel – NYTimes.com

nytimes.com

“The story of Alcoholics Anonymous teaches us about human nature and the kinds of social programs that do and don’t work.”

Congressional Budget Office – Distribution of Federal Taxes

www.cbo.gov

“The federal tax system is progressive–that is, average tax rates generally rise with income. Households in the bottom fifth of the income distribution (with average income of $18,400, under a broad definition of income) paid 4.0 percent of their income in federal taxes. The middle quintile, with average income of $64,500, paid 14.3 percent of that income in taxes, and the highest quintile, with average income of $264,700, paid 25.1 percent.”

Is Academic Freedom Worth Its Price? – Project Syndicate

www.project-syndicate.org

“In these hard economic times, when ordinary people are struggling to make ends meet, there is a nagging sense that universities are luxuries. In fact, universities may be the most consistently high-performing products of long-term capital investment.”

Review & Outlook: Kagan’s Commerce Clause – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“The Wall Street Journal says that Senators should ask Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan if Congress can compel Americans to do anything?”

Drilling for Better Information – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Information Age columnist Gordon Crovitz says that the financial crisis and BP share a common attribute: regulatory failure.”

Fouad Ajami: Petraeus, Obama and the War in Afghanistan – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Fouad Ajami says that there is a mismatch between the general’s Afghan mission and the president’s summons to his countrymen.”

Review & Outlook: Triumph of the Regulators – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“The Wall Street Journal says that the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill doubles down on the same system that failed.”

Russ Roberts: Hayek: An Economist’s Comeback – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Russell Roberts of George Mason University comments on the revival of interest in the Nobel Prize winning economist Friedrich Hayek.”

How Christianity Created Capitalism

www.torenewamerica.com

“It was the church more than any other agency, writes historian Randall Collins, that put in place what Weber called the preconditions of capitalism: the rule of law and a bureaucracy for resolving disputes rationally; a specialized and mobile labor force; the institutional permanence that allows for transgenerational investment and sustained intellectual and physical efforts, together with the accumulation of long-term capital; and a zest for discovery, enterprise, wealth creation, and new undertakings.”

Indiana ironing-board factory faces stiff competition from Chinese companies

www.washingtonpost.com

This article provides an interesting case study which clearly illustrates various dysfunctional aspects of trade protectionism in the real world; in particular, how tariffs shield US companies from having to compete and innovate in terms of the goods and services that they produce and the business models that they employ.

Unintended consequence of expanding liability…

According to bloomberg.com, “Proposals in Congress to raise U.S. liability costs to $10 billion to drill for oil in the Gulf could leave just three companies — BP, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc — with the finances to self-insure”.  As I recall, prior to the BP Deepwater Horizon explosion and spill, liability for offshore oil drilling was capped at $75 million. Thus, an unintended consequence of expanding liability by a factor of 133 times (from $75 million to $10 billion) would be to make it virtually impossible for the insurance market to insure offshore oil drilling liability, which in turn would ensure that only the very largest companies in the world will have the financial capacity needed in order to be able to continue to pursue deep water drilling as a business activity (because companies such as BP, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have the resources to self-insure this liability risk!). 

Assorted Links (6/14/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately:

Stephen A. Blumenthal: It’s Time to Nationalize Fannie and Freddie – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Stephen A. Blumenthal writes that any solution that allows private companies to have a special relationship to government is destined to fail.”

Think Smarter About Risk – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Moshe A. Milevsky says in The Wall Street Journal that when gauging risk, too many investors don’t consider the most important asset: their human capital.”

Opening weekend – 2010 World Cup – The Big Picture – Boston.com

boston.com

“The 2010 FIFA World Cup opened last Friday in South Africa, after years of preparation, with an Opening Ceremony at Soccer City Stadium – the first matches taking place over the weekend.”

Foreign Tax Bill Likely, But ‘A Bad Idea,’ Validus CEO Says

highlinedata.com

“NEW YORK-Proposed legislation denying tax deductions for reinsurance premiums paid to offshore affiliates will likely pass through Congress, a Bermuda executive predicted here yesterday, but he criticized the measure as a restriction of free trade.”

The Dark Side of Stimulus

“‘Regulating Wall Street’ Co-Editor and NYU economics professor Thomas Cooley breaks down the pros and cons of stimulus spending…”

Gerald O’Driscoll: The Gulf Spill, the Financial Crisis and the Failure of Big Government – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Gerald P. O’Driscoll notes that Republicans and Democrats fail to see the limits of centralized regulation in a modern market economy.”

Dynamic Dr. Krugman|KeithHennessey.com

KeithHennessey.com

“In his column today Dr. Paul Krugman argues that the deficit impact of a large ($1 trillion) stimulus would be mitigated by the effects of higher GDP growth.”

Women Prefer Men Holding State Bonds, Japan Ad Says (Update1) – Bloomberg.co.jp

Bloomberg.co.jp

“June 9 (Bloomberg) — Japanese women are seeking men who invest in government bonds, according to an advertisement being run by the Ministry of Finance.”

The Road to Price Controls — The American, A Magazine of Ideas

www.american.com

“Conventional wisdom is that U.S. pharmaceutical companies made out well under the Obama health plan by bargaining with the White House. That wisdom is wrong.”

Just How Risky Are Nuclear Industry, NASA Missions? – The Numbers Guy – WSJ

online.wsj.com

“Scientists in some risky pursuits attempt to quantify risks, which helps identify trouble spots. That might be in the future of the deep-sea oil-drilling business.”

Scenes from the Gulf of Mexico – The Big Picture – Boston.com

boston.com

“Based on recently revised estimates, BP’s ruptured oil well at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico continues to leak 25,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil a day. The new figures suggest that an amount of oil equivalent to the Exxon Valdez disaster could still be flowing into the Gulf of Mexico every 8 to 10 days.”

Lawrence M. Krauss: Science and the Gulf Spill – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, scientist Lawrence M. Krauss says that TV has fueled unrealistic expectations of a quick fix to the oil spill.”

Fouad Ajami: Iran and the ‘Freedom Recession’ – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Fouad Ajami writes in The Wall Street Journal about the anniversary of the Iranian crackdown on pro-democracy protests that Facebook had no answer to the pro-regime vigilantes who ruled the streets. And the U.S. president, who might have helped, stood aside.”

Andy Kessler: The iPhone, Net Neutrality and the FCC – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Andy Kessler writes in The Wall Street Journal that the FCC should make it easier for more companies to enter wireless data and cable broadband markets.”

Peggy Noonan: ‘We Are Totally Unprepared’ – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Peggy Noonan writes in The Wall Street Journal that nine years after 9/11, there is a chilling complacency about WMD attacks.”

Charles Krauthammer – The myth of Iran’s ‘isolation’

washingtonpost.com

“Obama’s strategy against Tehran hasn’t worked.”

Don’t Believe the Double-Dippers

online.wsj.com

“Alan Reynolds writes in The Wall Street Journal that while liberals issue dire warnings to argue for more stimulus spending, Republicans embrace gloom as evidence stimulus hasn’t worked. Truth is the economy isn’t that bad.”

Obama Meets Toto

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Dan Henninger writes that with the Gulf oil spill, faith in the omnipotence of government has put us in the land of Oz.”

Europe’s Determination to Decline

www.project-syndicate.org

“At a time when their economies are sputtering, European leaders have embraced the bizarre idea of further reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. There is a strong correlation between carbon emissions and GDP growth, so, in the absence of alternatives to fossil fuels, Europeans are, in effect, calling for an even deeper recession.”

Assorted Links (5/29/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately: 
 
Charles Krauthammer – A disaster with many fathers
“Obama is as responsible for the Gulf as Bush was for New Orleans.”
 
Academics on What Caused the Financial Crisis – Real Time Economics – WSJ
“The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on Friday and Saturday heard several academic economists’ take on what led to a near-meltdown of the global economy.”
 
Static In Search for Cellphone-Tumor Link – The Numbers Guy – WSJ
“Why a long-term study couldn’t reach conclusive results.”
 
Mark Helprin: On Memorial Day – WSJ.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Mark Helprin writes about what we owe to the fallen, and to those now serving.”

 
Calling a State Sponsor a State Sponsor

“A growing body of evidence points to Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez’s singular role in supporting terrorism and related criminality.”

 
“Waves & Beyond and The Gift by Jan Florence Garven: Jan Florence Garven is an artist who specializes in mixed media. She combines paper, metal, wax, textiles and found objects to convey conceptual images.”
 
Lighter than air – The Big Picture – Boston.com
“Fill a lightweight material with hot air, helium or hydrogen, and you have a vessel that floats in the air. People around the world use balloons, blimps and airships for transportation, to conduct research, to deliver messages, to protest, and – mostly – for having fun.”
 
Peggy Noonan: He Was Supposed to Be Competent – WSJ.com
“The spill is a disaster for the president and his political philosophy, Peggy Noonan argues in The Wall Street Journal.”
 
Obama’s Blowout Preventer – WSJ.com
“The Wall Street Journal that Interior Secretary Ken Salazar had a reform plan to prevent blowouts like the one at the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico.”
 
“Governments were the solution to the economic crisis. Now they are the problem.”
 
“After a yearlong effort to get it right, the U.S. Senate passed a financial overhaul bill last week that actually weakens the government’s ability to manage the next financial crisis. The House version passed last December is better, but not much.”

Assorted Links (5/29/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately: 
 
Charles Krauthammer – A disaster with many fathers
“Obama is as responsible for the Gulf as Bush was for New Orleans.”
 
Academics on What Caused the Financial Crisis – Real Time Economics – WSJ
“The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on Friday and Saturday heard several academic economists’ take on what led to a near-meltdown of the global economy.”
 
Static In Search for Cellphone-Tumor Link – The Numbers Guy – WSJ
“Why a long-term study couldn’t reach conclusive results.”
 
Mark Helprin: On Memorial Day – WSJ.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Mark Helprin writes about what we owe to the fallen, and to those now serving.”

 
Calling a State Sponsor a State Sponsor

“A growing body of evidence points to Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez’s singular role in supporting terrorism and related criminality.”

 
“Waves & Beyond and The Gift by Jan Florence Garven: Jan Florence Garven is an artist who specializes in mixed media. She combines paper, metal, wax, textiles and found objects to convey conceptual images.”
 
Lighter than air – The Big Picture – Boston.com
“Fill a lightweight material with hot air, helium or hydrogen, and you have a vessel that floats in the air. People around the world use balloons, blimps and airships for transportation, to conduct research, to deliver messages, to protest, and – mostly – for having fun.”
 
Peggy Noonan: He Was Supposed to Be Competent – WSJ.com
“The spill is a disaster for the president and his political philosophy, Peggy Noonan argues in The Wall Street Journal.”
 
Obama’s Blowout Preventer – WSJ.com
“The Wall Street Journal that Interior Secretary Ken Salazar had a reform plan to prevent blowouts like the one at the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico.”
 
“Governments were the solution to the economic crisis. Now they are the problem.”
 
“After a yearlong effort to get it right, the U.S. Senate passed a financial overhaul bill last week that actually weakens the government’s ability to manage the next financial crisis. The House version passed last December is better, but not much.”