Category Archives: Economics

Will the Bush tax cuts be allowed to expire?

An Associated Press article that appeared in yesterday’s Austin American Statesman entitled “More Democrats buck plan to let taxes rise” makes for very interesting reading.  The online article omitted what I thought was the most important information (source: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/09/02/business/main6830083.shtml):

“The most sweeping tax cuts in a generation are due to expire at the end of the year. Congress is set to take up the issue this month. If Congress does nothing, families at every income level face tax increases next year”:

2011 Income

Number of tax returns

Average tax increase (if Congress does nothing)

Less than $10,000

28,681,000

$70

$10,000 to $20,000

24,383,000

$410

$20,000 to $30,000

18,523,000

$756

$30,000 to $40,000

15,679,000

$893

$40,000 to $50,000

13,001,000

$923

$50,000 to $75,000

23,972,000

$1,126

$75,000 to $100,000

15,245,000

$1,837

$100,000 to $200,000

16,885,000

$3,672

$200,000 to $500,000

3,757,000

$7,187

$500,000 to $1 million

608,000

$18,092

$1 million and over

315,000

$101,587

Source: Joint Committee on Taxation

P.S.: My inner geek also found it interesting that the Joint Committee on Taxation counts a total of 161,049,000 individual tax returns filed in the United States for tax year 2009… 

Duke/CFO Business Outlook Survey

I received an email invitation today from CFO (Chief Financial Officer) Magazine to register for an upcoming webcast on the “Recent Findings from the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Outlook Survey” (see below).  According to the Duke/CFO Business Outlook Survey website located at http://www.cfosurvey.org/, the survey is conducted quarterly, and it “…polls CFOs of both public and private companies around the globe”.

In view of all of the discussion in the media concerning how firms are flush with cash these days, it is interesting to read the summary below, which notes that according to the most recent survey, “CFOs … are concerned about the availability of credit” (italics added for emphasis). Furthermore, I can’t help but wonder whether these cash holdings also correspond to chief financial officers having deflationary expectations; in a world with falling prices, it actually does make quite a bit of sense to horde cash.  Anyway, I am looking forward to “tuning in” to this webcast to learn more!

Capture

Peter Gordon’s Blog: Interesting analogy

From Peter Gordon, via Greg Mankiw, an “interesting analogy” from p. 25 of Paul Seabright’s book entitled “The Company of Strangers: A Natural History of Economic Life”: “Politicians are in charge of the modern economy in much the same way as a sailor is in charge of a small boat in a storm. The consequences of their losing control completely may be catastrophic,… but even while they keep afloat, their influence over the course of events is tiny in comparison with that of the storm around them. We who are their passengers may focus our hopes and fears upon them, and express profound gratitude toward them if we reach harbor safely, but that is chiefly because it seems pointless to thank the storm.”

How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End?

A new working paper entitled “How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End“, by Princeton’s Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, was released two days ago. In his blog posting entitled “The Impact of Another Kind of Stimulus”, New York Times reporter David Leonhardt characterizes it as “…the first serious attempt at analyzing the effect both of the stimulus programs passed by Congress and of the various financial-market policies put in place by the Fed, the Treasury and Congress” and summarizes some highlights of their analysis.  Yesterday, the New York Times published an article about the Blinder-Zandi paper entitled “In Study, 2 Economists Say Intervention Helped Avert a 2nd Depression” and also quotes Stanford professor John B. Taylor as saying that Blinder and Zandi’s empirical results were quite different from his own empirical work on the policy responses to the crisis.  Today, Professor Taylor provides a detailed critique of the Blinder-Zandi paper on his blog (see “More on the Blinder-Zandi Working Paper on the Crisis”).  Anyway, an interesting and very public academic debate is unfolding here which obviously has critically important policy implications; there’s a lot here to “chew” on!