Category Archives: Public Policy

Implications for Capital Metro of the Price Elasticity of Demand

Last night on the local (Austin, TX) news, there was a segment concerning how the local public transportation agency (AKA “Capital Metro”) apparently is planning to raise fares. The reporter was speculating about how large of an impact Capital Metro’s pricing decision might have upon ridership. 

Earlier this month, I began teaching a managerial economics course in Baylor University’s Executive MBA program in Austin.  Fortuitously, I just covered the topic of the price elasticity of demand this past week.  This concept measures how sensitive product demand is to price changes for a good or service.  Therefore, I think that my MBA students and I are in a much better position than the reporter was to predict what will likely happen.  Since we know that the price elasticity of demand for public transportation is quite low, averaging around -0.3 in the United States, this statistic implies that the proposed fare increase should reduce overall ridership, but not by nearly as much in percentage terms as the increase in the fare itself. Furthermore, since market demand will decrease in response to an increase in fares, so will overall system costs, assuming that Capital Metro managers not only have the good sense to scale back costs in response to a decline in market demand, but also have the flexibility (particularly from a labor contract and labor relations viewpoint) to do so. The “good” news (from a taxpayer viewpoint, anyway) is that the net effect will be that Capital Metro’s “fare recovery ratio”, or FRR (which measures the percentage of the bus route’s cost that is paid by riders rather than taxpayers) should increase. According to a recent Capital Metro report (see http://bit.ly/2bbGi3), its FRR was just 9% in 2007. Out of 32 North American public transportation systems referenced at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farebox_recovery_ratio, this is by far and away the worst FRR performance; the average FRR for this group is nearly 40%, and the standard deviation is 18%, which implies that Capital Metro is, in every sense of the term, a true “statistical outlier”.

Baylor economists Grinols and Henderson on health insurance and health care reform

One month ago, I blogged about a new book entitled “ Health Care for Us All: Getting More for Our Investment” written by Baylor economists Earl Grinols and Jim Henderson (see “ Baylor University Economists Call for Different Tack on Health Care Insurance”).  I would like to call attention to guest columns by both of my colleagues that appeared this Sunday in the Waco Tribune-Herald:

  • Waco Tribune-Herald: Earl L. Grinols, guest column: A lesson on how health insurance really works
    Waco Tribune-Herald, Sept. 20, 2009 (guest column about health care reform by applying basic economic principles by Dr. Earl L. Grinols, Distinguished Professor of Economics at Baylor, and co-author of the book, “Health Care for Us All,” with Baylor economics professor Jim Henderson)Americans have expressed displeasure with House Bill 3200, “America’s Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009,” as well as a proposed Senate version still in process, because both contain bad economics and bad ideas. Yet, one cannot beat something with nothing.
    Read More
  • Waco Tribune-Herald: James W. Henderson, guest column: Busting apart the big myths about health care
    Waco Tribune-Herald, Sept. 20, 2009 (guest column by Baylor economics professor James Henderson, who separates fact from fiction in the ongoing health care debate; Henderson is co-author of “Health Care for Us All” with Dr. Earl L. Grinols, Distinguished Professor of Economics at Baylor)The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie — deliberate, contrived and dishonest — but the myth: persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic. — President John F. Kennedy, commencement address at Yale University, June 11, 1962. It’s often difficult to sort out fact from fiction in the ongoing health care debate. Both sides are exaggerating issues and torturing data to make their points. The result is often confusing and misleading.
    Read More

How to Fix America’s Health Insurance Crisis: GET SOME

Although this video is somewhat dated (since it makes passing reference to the health care reform proposals of the 2008 presidential candidates), it provocatively illustrates why a nontrivial proportion of the nearly 47 million Americans who lack health insurance may be “voluntarily” uninsured.  Indeed, a recently released study by the Employment Policies Institute puts the number of uninsured Americans ages 18-64 who could likely afford health coverage at roughly 18 million people.  This video provides some anecdotes as to why this occurs.

How to Fix America's Health Insurance Crisis: GET SOME

Although this video is somewhat dated (since it makes passing reference to the health care reform proposals of the 2008 presidential candidates), it provocatively illustrates why a nontrivial proportion of the nearly 47 million Americans who lack health insurance may be “voluntarily” uninsured.  Indeed, a recently released study by the Employment Policies Institute puts the number of uninsured Americans ages 18-64 who could likely afford health coverage at roughly 18 million people.  This video provides some anecdotes as to why this occurs.

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57th Annual Management Conference 2009 on “The Future of Markets” at University of Chicago

I would like to call attention to the 57th Annual Management Conference 2009 on “The Future of Markets”, held at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, May 29, 2009.  Of particular interest is the 2 hour, 7 minute long keynote panel webcast featuring the following six University of Chicago faculty panelists:

  • Gary Becker, University Professor of Economics and of Sociology and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics
  • Kevin Murphy, George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor of Economics
  • Raghuram Rajan, Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance
  • Steven Kaplan, Neubauer Family Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance
  • Marianne Bertrand, Fred G. Steingraber/A. T. Kearney Professor of Economics
  • Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance

Click here for an executive summary of the keynote panel. For some context on the panel members, read the “Conference Pre-Reading“. Also, the discussion (roughly 1 hour long) featuring Ted Snyder and Gene Fama (from the same conference) on the question “Is the stock market an “efficient” market? is also very worthwhile (executive summary here). Ironically, even though the keynote panel and Fama webcasts took place nearly two months prior to the publication of the Economist cover article (dated 7/16/2009) entitled “What went wrong with economics (and how the discipline should change to avoid the mistakes of the past)”, these webcasts address many of the issues that were brought up in the Economist article.

57th Annual Management Conference 2009 on "The Future of Markets" at University of Chicago

57th Annual Management Conference 2009 on “The Future of Markets”, held at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, May 29, 2009.  Of particular interest is the 2 hour, 7 minute long keynote panel webcast featuring the following six University of Chicago faculty panelists:

  • Gary Becker, University Professor of Economics and of Sociology and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics
  • Kevin Murphy, George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor of Economics
  • Raghuram Rajan, Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Finance
  • Steven Kaplan, Neubauer Family Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance
  • Marianne Bertrand, Fred G. Steingraber/A. T. Kearney Professor of Economics
  • Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance
Click here for an executive summary of the keynote panel. For some context on the panel members, read the “Conference Pre-Reading“. Also, the discussion (roughly 1 hour long) featuring Ted Snyder and Gene Fama (from the same conference) on the question “Is the stock market an “efficient” market? is also very worthwhile (executive summary here). Ironically, even though the keynote panel and Fama webcasts took place nearly two months prior to the publication of the Economist cover article (dated 7/16/2009) entitled “What went wrong with economics (and how the discipline should change to avoid the mistakes of the past)”, these webcasts address many of the issues that were brought up in the Economist article.]]>

My preferred approach for reforming health insurance…

I don’t think that the question of whether the health care system should be reformed is particularly controversial; what is controversial is the manner in which health care reform ought to be structured and implemented.  I have always thought that the system could be much better designed, and that if you were going to do design such a system from scratch, you definitely would not want to tie the provision of health insurance to employment. This is the problem with “path dependence”; the institutional arrangements depend critically upon the starting point.  I think that it is fairly well known that in the case of the United States, the seminal event in tying the provision of health insurance to employment was the imposition of wage-price controls at the end of World War II.  Also, as Whole Foods CEO John Mackey recently pointed out, health care reform is not just health insurance reform. We also need tort reform so that the corrosive influence of the trial bar on the practice of medicine can be mitigated, and liberalization of health insurance markets so that there is a national (rather than the current “balkanized” state-by-state) market for health insurance.  While the latter reform would require some changes in insurance regulation, I think it would have the salutory effect of introducing much more competition into the health insurance market.

I personally favor a market-oriented reform along the lines described by Mr. Mackey. This would involve the expansion of Health Savings Accounts (HSA’s) coupled with high deductible insurance coverage.  Since we are concerned about controlling costs, it seems obvious that there ought to be more of an emphasis placed upon first party as opposed to third party payment, particularly for low severity, high frequency claims.  By exposing consumers more to the financial consequences of their health care consumption decisions, Health Savings Accounts have the potential to “bend the cost curve” by creating incentives for better decision-making by consumers and greater innovation and competition by health care providers. Efficiently priced excess of loss insurance coverage that is layered on top of the HSA’s protects consumers from catastrophic loss, and also further reinforces incentives for competition and innovation in the financing and provision of health care services.  To Mr. Mackey’s plan, I would also add assigned risk/joint underwriting association (JUA) mechanisms in order to address the problems of the uninsured and pre-existing conditions.  These types of mechanisms are widely and effectively used in property-casualty insurance markets (e.g., auto insurance, workers compensation, etc.) for the purpose of providing coverage to individuals and firms who are otherwise “uninsurable” in the voluntary markets.

As I have already noted, such reforms would also create even more opportunities for innovation in the financing of health care.  For example, University of Chicago Professor John Cochrane has proposed a particularly compelling idea about insurers offering long-term health insurance contracts in which future insurability is guaranteed, regardless of the manner in which one’s morbidity risk changes throughout the term of the insurance contract. This is conceptually similar to so-called level term contracts offered in the term life insurance market already, and it seems like an obvious innovation in a free market.  However, this kind of innovation is not possible as long as we continue to tie the provision of health insurance to employer groups.  Group policies are typically contracted for on a 12 month basis, and level term health insurance contracts are inherently less feasible with groups than for individuals.

Tragedy of the Non-Commons: A Case Study of Water Policy in Austin, TX

UT-Austin economics professor Daniel Hamermesh argues that the water shortage problem in Austin, TX “could readily be solved by pricing the water sufficiently high to ensure that we get through the drought with water to spare” (see Grazing the Non-Commons).  I wholeheartedly agree with Professor Hamermesh, and I would like to follow up his comments on the Freakonomics blog with my own.

Since 2007, Austin has been subject to so-called Stage 1 Water Use Restrictions.  Under Stage 1, residents are legally entitled to use their automatic sprinkler systems before 10 a.m. and after 7 p.m. two days per week (the actual days of the week depend upon whether one has an even-numbered or odd-numbered residence).  Violations of this schedule are Class C misdemeanors, with each instance punishable by a fine of up to $500.  Starting August 24, Austin will be under Stage 2 Water Use Restrictions, which limits the use of automatic sprinkler systems to Saturdays (for odd-numbered residential addresses) and Sundays (for at even-numbered residential addresses) before 10 a.m.

The manner in which water use is priced (with a nonlinear pricing schedule that is increasing in the volume of water usage) motivates most consumers to conserve.  However, I suspect that the prospect of a $500 fine and Class C misdemeanor citation probably affects the timing of water use more than it affects volume for most consumers.  In spite of the (rather compelling) economic incentives to conserve which derive from nonlinear pricing, apparently the City of Austin still finds it necessary to impose these highly restrictive rationing constraints. As Professor Hamermesh noted in his blog posting, the Austin American Statesman went so far on Monday as to publicly shame the top 10 users in June and July 2009 in a front page article. This seems like a market failure to me, and my “inner economist” suggests that a better way to mitigate this externality (rather than impose such draconian water use restrictions) would be to make the pricing schedule sufficiently convex so that even members of the top 10 club would sit up and take notice!

I suspect that like Professor Hamermesh, most Austinites will abide by the timing restrictions on watering.  However, it is also very likely that many (if not most) Austinites will set their sprinklers to run longer each session now that watering can only occur once rather than twice per week.  The problem with the policy is that it primarily addresses timing incentives, and not the real problem, which is over-consumption.  It remains to be seen whether private actions (running sprinkler systems longer per “legal” session) don’t end up making matters even worse than they already are.

Progressivism vs. Libertarianism and Health Care Reform

Arnold Kling and Tyler Cowen provide some interesting analyses of the progressive worldview from a libertarian perspective.  Since the various public versus private sector proposals for health care depend critically upon these underlying worldviews (with progressives preferring more government intervention and libertarians preferring greater reliance upon market forces), I can’t help but wonder a less shrill and more constructive discussion and debate of healthcare reform could occur if the opposing sides had a better understanding of these worldviews.  I would be most grateful for any references concerning an analysis of the libertarian worldview from a progressive perspective.