Prediction Markets Update (October 1, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 64.3, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 35 (compared with 64.3 and 35.7 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 313-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, has “picked up” Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) and Florida (25 Electoral College votes). The current “swing” states include Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), with Nevada and Ohio leaning strongly toward Obama (with prices of 55 and 53.5 respectively).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 336 to 202 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 1, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (313): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4)New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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