Prediction Markets Update (October 6, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 69, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 31.4 (compared with 64.2 and 35.0 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 338-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Florida (27 Electoral College votes) and Virginia (13 Electoral College Votes) are back in Mr. Obama’s corner, leaving only North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) as a swing state. currently gives Mr. Obama a 339.7 to 198.3 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 6, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (338): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

Panel of Experts to Discuss Financial and Mortgage Crisis

Media Contact: Cynthia Jackson

254-710-7628 (office)

254-749-4055 (cell)



WACO, Texas – Five professors from Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business will provide perspectives and advice about the current financial and mortgage crisis facing the United States. The panel discussion will take place on Friday, October 9, from 3:30 to 5:00 pm in Kayser Auditorium.

“Several faculty felt that we could offer students some valuable perspective and analysis on the current economic situation,” said Dr. Tisha Emerson, associate professor and associate chair of the Economics department. Emerson is coordinating the event. “This will be an opportunity for them to hear analysis from the experts and get answers to their questions.”

Panelists include experts in various aspects of economics, finance, accounting and insurance. Each will speak to a different aspect of the crisis and then answer questions from the audience.

Dr. Gia Chevis, assistant professor of Accounting, will discuss “mark-to-market” accounting procedures. Mark-to-market accounting became widely adopted as a practice in the 1980s and 1990s and impacts how an asset’s value is calculated. Mark-to-market is a practice specifically addressed within the bailout legislation recently passed by Congress.

Dr. James Garven, professor of Finance and Insurance and holder of the Frank S. Groner Memorial Chair in Finance, will focus on moral hazard related to bailouts. He will discuss some obvious examples of the risk of unintended consequences, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Dr. Kent Gilbreath, professor of Economics and the holder of the E.M. and Thelma Stevens Chair of Private Enterprise and Entrepreneurship, wrote presciently of the economic crisis more than a year ago. He will discuss the origins and causes of the crisis and its impact on the economy.

Dr. William Reichenstein, professor of Finance and holder of the Pat and Thomas R. Powers Chair of Investment Management, will provide commentary about what investors should do now and how the crisis might affect investor portfolios and savings plans.

Dr. David VanHoose, professor of Economics and holder of the Herman W. Lay Chair of Private Enterprise, will talk about the “blame game.” Does any one person, group or decision bear responsibility for the crisis?

The event is free and open to all Baylor students, regardless of major.

For more information, contact Dr. Tisha Emerson,, 710-4180.

About Baylor Business

The Hankamer School of Business holds to a visionary standard of excellence whereby integrity stands shoulder to shoulder with analytic and strategic strengths to build leaders, not simply careers. BusinessWeek ranks the program in 36th place. U.S.News & World Report ranks the undergraduate business program in 58th place. Baylor’s Entrepreneurship program is ranked 14th by U.S.News and its Accounting program is ranked 24th by Public Accounting Report. Visit for more information.