Prediction Markets Update (October 6, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 69, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 31.4 (compared with 64.2 and 35.0 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 338-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Florida (27 Electoral College votes) and Virginia (13 Electoral College Votes) are back in Mr. Obama’s corner, leaving only North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) as a swing state.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 339.7 to 198.3 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 6, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (338): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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