Prediction Markets Update (October 2, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 67.4, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 32.6 (compared with 64.3 and 35 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update), so in terms of the overall contracts, the odds favor Obama by a 2:1 margin.

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 311-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Florida (27 Electoral College votes) has moved from Obama’s column back into the “swing” state category, but has been replaced by Nevada (5 Electoral College votes) and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes). Besides Florida, the other “swing” state currently is North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 331.2 to 206.8 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 2, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (311): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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