Prediction Markets Update (October 5, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 64.2, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 35.0 (compared with 67.9 and 32.0 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 298-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The “swing” states remain Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Virginia (13 Electoral College Votes), and North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 339.7 to 198.3 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 5, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (298): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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