Prediction Markets Update (October 10, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 78, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 22.6 (compared with 76.6 and 23.4 respectively yesterday).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 353-163 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since my last update (on October 8), North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) has swung over to the Obama column, whereas Indiana (11 Electoral College votes) and Missouri (11 Electoral College votes) have dropped out of the McCain column and moved into swing state status.

Addendum: October 10, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (353): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (163): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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