Prediction Markets Update (October 11, 2008)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 77.2, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 23.9 (compared with 78 and 22.6 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 353-174 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, what’s changed is that Indiana (11 Electoral College votes) has moved back into McCain’s column, leaving Missouri (11 Electoral College votes) as the only swing state.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 349.4 to 188.6 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 11, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (353): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (174): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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