Prediction Markets Update: November 3, 2008

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 90.5, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 10 (compared with 83.3 and 17.3 respectively as as reported in my last update on October 30).

On this, the eve of the 2008 election, the state-by-state contracts imply that Mr. Obama holds a 353-174 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since my last update on October 30, Missouri has moved out of the Obama column and is now a “swing” state (indeed, the last recorded trades for MISSOURI.DEM and MISSOURI.REP were at prices of 50.1 for both contracts).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 340.2 to 197.8 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: November 3, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (353): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (174): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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