Prediction Markets Update: October 30, 2008

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 83.3, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 17.3 (compared with 87.2 and 13.3 respectively as as reported in my last update on October 28).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 364-174 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes), with none of the 50 states or the District of Columbia falling into the “swing” state category.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 344.1 to 193.9 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 30, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (364): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (174): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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