Prediction Markets Update: October 28, 2008

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 87.2, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 13.3 (compared with 88 and 12.8 respectively as as reported in my last update on October 26).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 364-174 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes), with none of the 50 states or the District of Columbia falling into the “swing” state category.  Since my last update, Indiana (11 Electoral College votes) has moved from Mr. Obama’s column into Mr. McCain’s column.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 348.2 to 189.8 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 28, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (364): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (174): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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