For what it’s worth, here’s what the intrade markets are predicting for 2009 (as of 7am ET on 12/29/2008):

1. GM to announce a merger with another major auto manufacturer: 35%
2. More than US$25 billion to be injected into the big 3 auto-makers: 60%
3. Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: 53%
4. Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp to be closed in 2009: 84%
5. The US in Recession in 2009: 85%
6. An air strike against Iran before end of 2009: 21%
7. US unemployment rate at or above 8% in December 2009: 50%
8. Robert Mugabe to depart as President of Zimbabwe in 2009: 50%
9. Slumdog Millionaire to win Academy Award for Best Picture: 52%