Prediction markets, new year edition

For what it’s worth, here’s what the intrade markets are predicting for 2009 (as of 7am ET on 12/29/2008):

  1. GM to announce a merger with another major auto manufacturer: 35%
  2. More than US$25 billion to be injected into the big 3 auto-makers: 60%
  3. Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: 53%
  4. Guantanamo Bay Detention Camp to be closed in 2009: 84%
  5. The US in Recession in 2009: 85%
  6. An air strike against Iran before end of 2009: 21%
  7. US unemployment rate at or above 8% in December 2009: 50%
  8. Robert Mugabe to depart as President of Zimbabwe in 2009: 50%
  9. Slumdog Millionaire to win Academy Award for Best Picture: 52%
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