All posts by Jim Garven

My name is Jim Garven. I currently hold appointments at Baylor University as the Frank S. Groner Memorial Chair of Finance and Professor of Finance & Insurance. I also currently serve as an associate editor for Geneva Risk and Insurance Review. At Baylor, I teach courses in managerial economics, risk management, and financial engineering, and my research interests are in corporate risk management, insurance economics, and option pricing theory and applications. Please email your comments about this weblog to James_Garven@baylor.edu.

Assorted Links (10/26/2009)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading today (organized by topic):

Behavioral Economics

  • Lessons from an Ad Man

Rory Sutherland wows a TED conference audience with a compelling and highly entertaining sixteen minute talk on advertising and aspects of behavioral economics.  I particularly enjoyed the “market research” segment toward the end of the video on Shreddies, Diamond Shreddies, and the Diamond Shreddies Combo Pack. Hat tip to Tutor2u!

Health Care Reform

“Americans seem to like the idea of broadening health insurance coverage, but they may not want to be forced to buy it. With health care costs high and rising, such government mandates would make many people worse off.”

  • Why Government Health Care Keeps Falling in the Polls, by Arthur Brooks

“The health-care debate is part of a larger moral struggle over the free-enterprise system.”

“In the health care debate, the ‘public plan’ is all things to all people. For supporters, it would discipline greedy private insurers and make health coverage affordable. For detractors, it’s a way station on the path to a single-payer insurance system of government-run health care. In reality, the public plan is mostly an exercise in political avoidance: It pretends to control costs and improve access to quality care when it doesn’t.”

Politics

  • ‘Man Up, Obama’ and Other Nonsense, by Joe Queenan

“Our liberal op-ed writers don’t think a president from Chicago is tough enough.”

“In the health care debate, the ‘public plan’ is all things to all people. For supporters, it would discipline greedy private insurers and make health coverage affordable. For detractors, it’s a way station on the path to a single-payer insurance system of government-run health care. In reality, the public plan is mostly an exercise in political avoidance: It pretends to control costs and improve access to quality care when it doesn’t.”

Public Policy and Finance

  • Learning to Love Insider Trading, by Donald Boudreaux

“Here’s a hot tip: Want to keep companies honest, make the markets work more efficiently and encourage investors to diversify? Let insiders buy and sell, argues Donald J. Boudreaux.”

SuperFreakonomics

Tonight on ABC’s 20/20 program, the entire show will be devoted to SuperFreakonomics (subtitled “Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance”).  SuperFreakonomics is the recently released sequel to Freakonomics (subtitled “A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything”) which appeared in 2005.  The authors of both books are Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner.  Levitt is an economics professor at the University of Chicago and the 2003 winner of the John Bates Clark medal (“awarded biennially … to that American economist under the age of forty who is judged to have made the most significant contribution to economic thought and knowledge”; for what it’s worth, roughly 40% of the Clark medalists have subsequently received the Nobel Prize in economics).  Dubner is an award-winning author and journalist who lives in New York.

Anyway, tonight’s 20/20 program will air five segments, all of which can be previewed online: handwashing in hospitals, the effectiveness of car seats, how practice trumps talent, the dirty truth about altruism, and the problems with global warming.  If you’re interested in following the Freakonomics blog, it is located at http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com

Assorted Links (10/23/2009)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading today (organized by topic):

The Economy

This webpage features an interactive chart, based upon the 2008 CIA World Factbook, of per capita GDP for the vast majority of countries in the world.  According to this webpage, the average per capita GDP worldwide during 2008 was $15,162; in America, it was $47,000.  Liechtenstein was the highest, clocking in at $118,000, and Zimbabwe was the lowest, at $200.

Financial Crisis

  • Preventing the Next Financial Crisis, by Allan Meltzer

“Don’t be fooled by the bond market. Banks are holding prices down because they can buy Treasurys with free money from the Fed.”

Health Care Reform

  • Obama’s Doctor Shortage, by Allysia Finley

 “All of the president’s “fixes” will just create new problems.”

“In the Wrangle Over Health Care, a Low Rating for the U.S. System Keeps Emerging Despite Evident Shortcomings in Study”. Also see Mr. Bialik’s blog posting entitled “The Trouble With Ranking National Health-Care Systems” for a more technical version of this article.

Highly Recommended

I completely agree with Mr. Frakt’s enthusiastic endorsement of EconTalk, Econtalk podcasts follow a “talk show” format; here is a very accurate self-description of Econtalk:

“The talk show features one-on-one discussions with an eclectic mix of authors, professors, Nobel Laureates, entrepreneurs, leaders of charities and businesses, and people on the street. The emphases are on using topical books and the news to illustrate economic principles. Exploring how economics emerges in practice is a primary theme.”

Politics

  • The Chicago Way, by Kim Strassel

“The Chamber of Commerce is only the latest target of the Chicago Gang in the White House.”

“And the American people want him to fix it.”

  • White House vs. Fox News, by Charles Krauthammer

“Rahm Emanuel once sent a dead fish to a live pollster. Now he’s put a horse’s head in Roger Ailes’s bed.”

Executive Compensation Debate

I would like to call everyone’s attention to a formal online debate concerning executive compensation which began on Tuesday, October 20 and is scheduled to conclude on October 30th.  Later in the semester, we’ll discuss how to structure compensation to align incentives between owners and managers of firms.  However, this debate, which is sponsored by The Economistaddresses the ongoing public controversy concerning whether senior executives are worth what they are paid. 

Specifically, the motion reads as follows: “This house believes that on the whole, senior executives are worth what they are paid.”  The person defending the motion is Steven N. Kaplan, who is the Neubauer Family Professor of Entrepreneurship & Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.  Professor Kaplan may very well be one of the most widely published and prolific scholars on the topic of executive compensation.  The person who is against the motion is Nell Minow, who is Editor and Co-founder of The Corporate Library, which is an organization that bills itself as “…the leading independent source for U.S. and Canadian corporate governance and executive & director compensation information and analysis”.  Anyway, this debate should certainly be interesting to follow!

The economics of the market for swine flu vaccine

I would like to call attention to a short article entitled “Swine flu vaccines and elasticity of supply”.  The author of this article, Geoff Riley, claims that most of the swine flu market is being contested by only four companies: GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis AG and AstraZeneca.  He also notes that “For students of the price mechanism it is a fascinating example of many supply and demand concepts at work: the challenge of scaling up production to meet huge levels of demand – this has involved out-sourcing, the relative importance of fixed and variable costs in developing and manufacturing/distributing a new drug, the elasticity of supply of vaccines to meet short term health requirements, the oligopolistic race to win and protect market share, economies of scale in production, the balance of power between the major buyers and the multinational drug suppliers, price discrimination tactics.”  I hope that Mr. Riley will expand further upon these topics in future blog postings.  If he does, I will be sure to pass this information along.

It appears (to me, anyway) that the U.S. is not all that well prepared this time around for either the seasonal flu or the swine flu.  Both types of flu appear to be in full swing, and yet there are pervasive shortages of both types of vaccines.  I can only hope that the situation does not deteriorate as badly as it did in 2004, which was the last time that a major vaccine shortage occurred.  Back then, the U.S. government had contracted with just two companies, Aventis (now Sanofi-Aventis) and Chiron (now a division of Novartis AG), for each firm to supply roughly 1/2 of the entire U.S. flu vaccine market that year.  The problem then was that in early October 2004, the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) suspended Chiron’s license to manufacture influenza virus vaccine in its Liverpool facility, which in turn prevented the company from releasing any of its flu vaccine product during the entire 2004-2005 influenza season.  In fact, the shortage became so severe in the U.S. that by late October 2004, numerous articles began to appear touting medical tourism to Canada for the purpose of getting vaccinated for the seasonal flu; e.g., see my 10/27/2004 blog entry entitled “Some Canadian Flu Shot Alternatives”.  Considering that (according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC)) seasonal influenza by itself typically accounts for 140,000 hospitalizations and 40,000 deaths per year in the United States, this demonstrates how hazardous it can be to rely upon such a small number of suppliers.

Assorted Links (10/20/2009)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading today (organized by topic):

Economics and the Financial Crisis

“We can solve the too-big-to-fail problem without losing the benefits of a global financial system.”

“The ‘American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009’ (ARRA), was rushed through Congress on the grounds that fast-acting and temporary measures were needed to counteract the recession… All told, the Obama administration’s budget seeks to make at least 37% of ARRA’s spending and tax cuts permanent on an annual basis.”

Game Theory

  • Fair division in homeowner association fees, by Presh Talwalkar

Miscellaneous

  • Saturn at equinox, from the Boston Globe’s “Big Picture” blogsite

“Checking in with NASA’s Cassini spacecraft, our current emissary to Saturn, some 1.5 billion kilometers (932 million miles) distant from Earth, we find it recently gathering images of the Saturnian system at equinox. During the equinox, the sunlight casts long shadows across Saturn’s rings, highlighting previously known phenomena and revealing a few never-before seen images. Cassini continues to orbit Saturn, part of its extended Equinox Mission, funded through through September 2010. A proposal for a further extension is under consideration, one that would keep Cassini in orbit until 2017, ending with a spectacular series of orbits inside the rings followed by a suicide plunge into Saturn on Sept. 15, 2017. (previously: 1, 2, 3). (23 photos total)”

Politics

“Congress should consider the costs before passing ‘cap and trade.’”

  • Does Obama Believe in Human Rights?, by Bret Stephens

“Human rights “interfere” with President Obama’s campaign against climate change.

Assorted Links (10/19/2009)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading today (organized by topic):

Art, Music and Culture

  • The Good, the Bad and the Exaggerated in Michael Moore’s New Film, ‘Capitalism: A Love Story’

“Michael Moore’s movie, Capitalism: A Love Story, doesn’t pull any punches in its depiction of capitalism as the monster that is destroying America. Moore’s villains range from Wall Street bankers to Wal-Mart to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, while capitalism’s victims include those who are losing their jobs, their houses and, in some cases, their faith in a system that is supposed to reward hard work and playing by the rules. Knowledge@Wharton asked Kent Smetters, a professor of insurance and risk management at Wharton who describes himself as “generally right of center,” to review Capitalism: A Love Story.”

The Economy

  • The Economy — Right Now

From Knowledge@Wharton, this article explains a new economic “…indicator of indicators that purports to measure the overall state of the economy on just about any given day.”

Finance

  • Mortgages: Price Security for Home Sellers, by Bob Tedeschi

“Would you be willing to give away 1 percent of your home’s value if it meant not having to worry about losing more?”

Health Care Reform

  • ‘Expert Panels’ Won’t Improve Health Care, by Norbert Gleicher

“Government reliance on medical studies will make it harder to discard false prophecies and dogmas.”

  • ObamaCare’s Tax on Work

“Middle-income families will face a big marginal rate increase.”

Law

  • Civilian Courts Are No Place to Try Terrorists, by Michael Mukasey

“We tried the first World Trade Center bombers in civilian courts. In return we got 9/11 and the murder of nearly 3,000 innocents.”

Public Policy

  • Bloggers Mugged By Regulators, by Gordon Crovitz

“The FTC wants to police book reviews on Twitter.”

Assorted Links (10/16/2009)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading today (organized by topic):

Economics and the Financial Crisis

“Borrow from the Federal Reserve at zero and lend to Treasury for a profit. That’s some racket.”

“Almost two-thirds of all bad mortgages in our financial system were bought by government agencies or required by government regulations.”

Health Care Reform

“Beating up on the insurers feels good but may not be the right medicine.”

Foreign Policy

  • Israel’s Secret War on Hezbollah, by Ronen Bergman

“Iran’s proxy army in Lebanon will think twice before launching another round of missile attacks.”

  • No Nobel Results From Obama Foreign Policy, by Charles Krauthammer

“About the only thing more comical than Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize was the reaction of those who deemed the award “premature,” as if the brilliance of Obama’s foreign policy is so self-evident and its success so assured that if only the Norway Five had waited a few years, his Nobel worthiness would have been universally acknowledged.”

Politics

“We are a nation fully settled by government. The terrain ahead is both crowded and costly.”

  • The Reality Moment, by David Brooks

“Conservative politicians in Britain are treating voters as adults, offering not merely pain, but a different economic vision, and American Republicans should take a cue from their approach.”

Political Satire

“In his De Gustibus column, Eric Felten wonders what James Bond would have to say about a new CIA directive on global warming.”

Statistics

  • An Encyclopedia of Probability, by Carl Bialik

 

Implications for Capital Metro of the Price Elasticity of Demand

Last night on the local (Austin, TX) news, there was a segment concerning how the local public transportation agency (AKA “Capital Metro”) apparently is planning to raise fares. The reporter was speculating about how large of an impact Capital Metro’s pricing decision might have upon ridership. 

Earlier this month, I began teaching a managerial economics course in Baylor University’s Executive MBA program in Austin.  Fortuitously, I just covered the topic of the price elasticity of demand this past week.  This concept measures how sensitive product demand is to price changes for a good or service.  Therefore, I think that my MBA students and I are in a much better position than the reporter was to predict what will likely happen.  Since we know that the price elasticity of demand for public transportation is quite low, averaging around -0.3 in the United States, this statistic implies that the proposed fare increase should reduce overall ridership, but not by nearly as much in percentage terms as the increase in the fare itself. Furthermore, since market demand will decrease in response to an increase in fares, so will overall system costs, assuming that Capital Metro managers not only have the good sense to scale back costs in response to a decline in market demand, but also have the flexibility (particularly from a labor contract and labor relations viewpoint) to do so. The “good” news (from a taxpayer viewpoint, anyway) is that the net effect will be that Capital Metro’s “fare recovery ratio”, or FRR (which measures the percentage of the bus route’s cost that is paid by riders rather than taxpayers) should increase. According to a recent Capital Metro report (see http://bit.ly/2bbGi3), its FRR was just 9% in 2007. Out of 32 North American public transportation systems referenced at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farebox_recovery_ratio, this is by far and away the worst FRR performance; the average FRR for this group is nearly 40%, and the standard deviation is 18%, which implies that Capital Metro is, in every sense of the term, a true “statistical outlier”.