Prediction Markets Update: October 19, 2008

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 84.1, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 16.1 (compared with 83.6 and 16.1 respectively as as reported in yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 364-174 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since there are no longer any state contracts that are trading in the 45-55 range, this means that As was the case yesterday, there currently are no “swing” states left (according to this pricing criterion, anyway).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 343.9 to 194.1 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 19, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (364): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (174): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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