Prediction Markets Update: October 23, 2008

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 87.1, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 13.8 (compared with 84.1 and 16.1 respectively as as reported in my last update on October 19).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 364-163 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Mr. McCain’s point total is 11 lower now because Indiana (11 Electoral College votes) has moved out of his column and into “swing state” status.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 344.3 to 193.7 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 23, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (364): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (163): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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