Prediction Markets Update: October 25, 2008

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 86.9, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 13.4 (compared with 87.1 and 13.8 respectively as as reported in my last update on October 23).

The state-by-state contracts imply that Mr. Obama holds a 375-163 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). None of the 50 states or the District of Columbia fall into the “swing” state category. Since my last update, Indiana has been nudged from swing state status into Mr. Obama’s column.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 348.4 to 189.6 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 25, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (375): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (163): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

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