Assorted Links (8/10/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately:

William McGurn: Are Americans Bigots? – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Main Street columnist William McGurn says elites have become far too ready to attack the motives of those who disagree with them.”

Henry Olsen: Unemployment: What Would Reagan Do? – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Henry Olsen of the American Enterprise Institute says no other recession in the last 60 years saw such rapid job destruction.”

Student-Loan Debt Surpasses Credit Cards – Real Time Economics – WSJ

blogs.wsj.com

“Consumers now owe more on their student loans than their credit cards. Americans owe some $826.5 billion in revolving credit, while student loans outstanding today total some $829.785 billion.”

From Gutenberg to Zoobert – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Information Age columnist Gordon Crovitz discusses the fate of the printed book in the age of the Kindle and the iPad.” Imagine this: the market capitalization of “Barnes & Noble, whose more than 700 stores make it the largest bricks-and-mortar book chain, … is less than $1 billion, compared with Amazon’s $55 billion.”

In silhouette – The Big Picture – Boston.com

www.boston.com

Fairness and the Capital Tax Fetish – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Columbia University’s business school dean Glenn Hubbard says the Bush dividend, capital gains and marginal income tax rates should be preserved. These tax cuts spurred economic growth, and letting them expire would have a dampening effect on the economy.”

When Congress Is Away, the Market Will Play – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com

freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com

“Anxious investors can take heart: Congress’s August recess begins at the end of this week, which has historically been a good thing for the markets. Michael Ferguson and Hugh Douglas Witte found that “about 90% of the capital gains over the life of the Dow Jones Industrial Average have come on days when Congress is out of session.”

Assorted Links (8/8/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately:

Michael P. Fleischer: Why I’m Not Hiring – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Michael P. Fleischer writes that punishing tax rates discourage job creation by businesses.”

Book review: The Five-Year Party – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Melanie Kirkpatrick reviews The Five-Year Party: How Colleges Have Given Up on Educating Your Child and What You Can Do About It.”

Economics One: The Ryan Roadmap versus the Road to Ruin

johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com

“There are alternative plans of course, but at the very least the facts shown in these charts demonstrate that the Ryan Roadmap is a big improvement over the road we are on now.”

Review & Outlook: The Taliban Method and the Brutal Murder of Aid Workers – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“A Wall Street Journal editorial says that the murder of 10 aid workers in Afghanistan reveals the brutal nature of our enemy.”

Canada, the Land of Smaller Government – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Jason Clemens says that Canada’s government for the last 20 years has cut taxes and spending. It is emerging out of the recession faster than the U.S.”

Gary Hubbell: The Redneck tree hugger | AspenTimes.com

www.aspentimes.com

“Barack Obama is the best thing that has happened to America in the last 100 years. Truly, he is the savior of America’s future. He is the best thing (read more)…”


Treasury Lover Bets on Disinflation – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“The investment thesis of loyal Treasury-debt buyer Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management cuts to the heart of an important question facing the global economy: Is inflation about to rise or will a chilling deflation take hold?”

Peter Gordon’s Blog: Interesting analogy

From Peter Gordon, via Greg Mankiw, an “interesting analogy” from p. 25 of Paul Seabright’s book entitled “The Company of Strangers: A Natural History of Economic Life”: “Politicians are in charge of the modern economy in much the same way as a sailor is in charge of a small boat in a storm. The consequences of their losing control completely may be catastrophic,… but even while they keep afloat, their influence over the course of events is tiny in comparison with that of the storm around them. We who are their passengers may focus our hopes and fears upon them, and express profound gratitude toward them if we reach harbor safely, but that is chiefly because it seems pointless to thank the storm.”

Assorted Links (8/7/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately:

How Companies Track Corporate Reputation – The Numbers Guy – WSJ

blogs.wsj.com 

“How polling firms and other companies track corporate reputation, from monitoring social networks to surveying thousands of people daily.”

Medicare Actuary Questions Obamacare Savings | Foxnews.com

politics.blogs.foxnews.com

“The actuaries at Medicare are the nonpolitical guardians of government health care spending and are seen as stubbornly independent.And they are warning that the assumptions the administration is relying on to fund its health care policy may create enormous problems for Medicare — just as tens of millions of baby boomers start retiring.”

The World Drills On – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“The Wall Street Journal editorial board writes on how the rest of the world continues to drill in deep water, ignoring the Obama moratorium.”

Thomas F. Siems: Government and the Uncertainty Trap – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com 

“In The Wall Street Journal, Thomas Siems of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank says that it is not a lack of liquidity that’s holding back our economy. Investors and business leaders are waiting to learn more about future taxes and regulations.”

Mr. Fairness – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com 

“In The Wall Street Journal, Kimberley Strassel interviews Ken Feinberg, the pay czar, BP claims administrator, and 9/11 victims fund manager.”

TaxVox: the Tax Policy Center blog :: In Defense of Congressman Paul Ryan

taxvox.taxpolicycenter.org

“Given that columnist Paul Krugman relied on Tax Policy Center estimates to level claims that Congressman Paul Ryan is a “flimflam man” and that Ryan’s plan to address our fiscal problems is a “fraud,” I think a defense of the Congressman is in order.”

When Labor Is Capital: The Limits of Keynesian Policy

www.american.com

“The economic mystery of 2010 is the persistence of high unemployment, in spite of stimulus that follows the prescription of the prevailing Keynesian orthodoxy. Here’s an alternative to that orthodoxy.”

Dana Mack: Now What for Marriage, After the Federal Ruling Against California’s Proposition 8 

online.wsj.com

“Dana Mack writes … about the implications of this week’s ruling by a federal judge that the same-sex marriage ban enshrined in California’s Proposition 8 is unconstitutional.” 

John Murray: The ‘C’ Should Stay in the YMCA 

online.wsj.com 

“John Murray writes … about the YMCA’s new branding strategy and name change, to the Y, and says neither effort will make the organization any more effective at service to the community than the original YMCA always was.”

Peggy Noonan: America Is at Risk of Boiling Over – WSJ.com 

online.wsj.com 

“And out-of-touch leaders don’t see the need to cool things off, Peggy Noonan writes in The Wall Street Journal.”

Charles Krauthammer – Annals of executive overreach

www.washingtonpost.com

“In a democracy, administrators administer the law; they don’t change it.”

Assorted Links (8/5/2010)

Here’s a list of articles that I have been reading lately:

Nature or nurture: What determines investor behavior

www.sciencedirect.com

Here’s the abstract from this fascinating article: “Using data on identical and fraternal twins’ complete financial portfolios, we decompose the cross-sectional variation in investor behavior. We find that a genetic factor explains about one-third of the variance in stock market participation and asset allocation. Family environment has an effect on the behavior of young individuals, but this effect is not long-lasting and disappears as an individual gains experience. Frequent contact among twins results in similar investment behavior beyond a genetic factor. Twins who grew up in different environments still display similar investment behavior. Our interpretation of a genetic component of the decision to invest in the stock market is that there are innate differences in factors affecting effective stock market participation costs. We attribute the genetic component of asset allocation—the relative amount invested in equities and the portfolio volatility—to genetic variation in risk preferences.”


Unions and the Obama Administration


www.becker-posner-blog.com


Here’s the latest from Gary S. Becker, 1992 Nobel economics laureate, on the topic of unions and the Obama administration: “Are the Democratic-controlled Congress and President Obama very much pro union? Unquestionably. Do the economic effects of unions on the welfare of workers as a whole justify that union bias? No. Has their pro-union orientation seriously retarded the recovery from the recession? Probably…”


Housing markets: Doomed to repeat history


www.economist.com


“Now, qualified homebuyers in the three states pioneering Affordable Advantage do not need to put down the 3.5 percent minimum down payment required by the Federal Housing Administration, or much of a down payment at all. They can get 100 percent financing — a loan as big as the purchase price of…”


Art Sales Revive From Their Swoon – WSJ.com


online.wsj.com


“It looks like the art market’s Blue Period is over. A year and a half after art prices plunged, the world’s chief auction houses say they have recaptured much of their pre-recession momentum.”


Daniel Henninger: The Great-Guy Theory of History – WSJ.com


online.wsj.com


“In The Wall Street Journal, Daniel Henninger writes that Charlie Rangel forgot that America’s voters want more than a great guy.”


GM’s Latest Nemesis: VW – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“Holman Jenkins writes in The Wall Street Journal that the real test will be whether GM can go forward and adapt successfully to a relentlessly competitive market.”

Betsy McCaughey: ObamaCare and the Constitution—An Update – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Betsy McCaughey notes that a federal court has denied the government’s motion to dismiss the challenge to the health reform law. Courts will have to take the arguments against the law more seriously.”

Dorothy Rabinowitz: Liberal Piety and the Memory of 9/11 – WSJ.com

online.wsj.com

“In The Wall Street Journal, Dorothy Rabinowitz says the enlightened class can’t understand why the public is uneasy about the Ground Zero mosque.”

More U.S. Children Being Diagnosed With Youthful Tendency Disorder

www.theonion.com

“REDLANDS, CA–Nicholas and Beverly Serna’s daughter Caitlin was only four years old, but they already knew there was a problem.


Obamacare Only Looks Worse Upon Further Review: Kevin Hassett


www.bloomberg.com

“The new law creates 68 grant programs, 47 bureaucratic entities, 29 demonstration or pilot programs, six regulatory systems, six compliance standards and two entitlements. Getting that massive enterprise up and running will be next to impossible. So Democrats streamlined the process by granting Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius the authority to make judgments that can’t be challenged either administratively or through the courts.”

American Thinker: Paul Krugman Gives Up

www.americanthinker.com “A marvelous thing happened over on Paul Krugman’s blog at the New York Times last week. Krugman effectively conceded defeat on a range of economic debates. Who defeated him? People who posted comments on his New York Times blog. Mere commenters.”

Texas: The lone star

www.economist.com


“AMERICA’S recession has been a bad one, but it’s been much worse in some states than in others. The downturn in the West and Midwest has been long and deep. In the plains and on the East Coast, the recession was a bit milder and ended sooner. And among large states, no one matched Texas…”


Paul E. Peterson and Martin R. West: African-Americans for Charter Schools – WSJ.com


online.wsj.com


“In The Wall Street Journal, Paul E. Peterson and Martin R. West write that new survey data show black support for charters is on the rise. So why is the NAACP opposed?”


Virginia & the ObamaCare Legal Challenge – WSJ.com


online.wsj.com


“The Wall Street Journal writes that a U.S. district judge rejected the Administration’s argument that one of the key Constitutional challenges should be dismissed outright.”


Bret Stephens: Is Afghanistan Worth It? – WSJ.com


online.wsj.com


“In The Wall Street Journal, Global View columnist Bret Stephens writes that the U.S. cannot remain a superpower if the suspicion takes root that we are a feckless nation.”

Foreign Holdings of US Debt…

Sandy Leeds has an interesting post today concerning foreign holdings of publicly held US Treasury securities.  According to Mr. Leeds, currently there is $8.6 trillion outstanding of publicly held US Treasury securities.  The US Treasury’s website provides a table that breaks the debt down in terms of foreign holdings of these securities; thus slightly less than 50% of US Treasury securities outstanding is held by foreign investors, for what that’s worth.  Also, China accounts for roughly 10% of total foreign holdings of US Treasury securities, and Japan accounts for more than 9% of that total:

Capture

Prediction Markets Update on 2010 US Congressional Control

I have blogged extensively over the years concerning how reliable the so-called “prediction markets”; e.g., intrade.com, Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are in assessing political outcomes,  particularly when compared with traditional surveys conducted by various media companies.  Examples include prediction market assessments of presidential elections (e.g., see Prediction markets assessment of the Presidential Election from October 26, 2004 and Preliminary assessment of the accuracy of the Intrade State-by-State contracts from November 5, 2008), Supreme Court confirmations (e.g., see SC.CONFIRM.ALITO from November 6, 2005), as well as other kinds of contingent events such as the state of the economy (e.g., see What are the prediction markets saying about the economy? from April 10, 2009), etc. 

Both intrade.com and IEM maintain actively traded markets pertaining to the question of which party will control Congress (both House and Senate) after the 2010 midterm election which will be held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010.  The intrade.com market offers futures contracts which pay 100 points (where 1 point = $.10) in the event that a specific contingent event occurs and 0 points otherwise. Thus, prices represent “risk neutral” event probabilities.

As of the market close on August 2, 2010, the Intrade market put the odds that the GOP will control the US House of Representatives after the midterm election at 59.9%.  The ticker symbol for the contract upon which this probability is based is HOUSE.REP.2010.  This contract began trading on September 5, 2008; the lowest recorded price was 15 (around the time of President Obama’s inauguration in January 2009), and the highest recorded price was yesterday’s closing price of 59.9.  Here’s a picture of the time series price behavior of HOUSE.REP.2010 contract since inception:

Like the HOUSE.REP.2010 contract, HOUSE.DEM.2010 contract began trading on September 5, 2008; not surprisingly, the lowest closing price occurred yesterday (43), and the highest price recorded was 90 (around the time of President Obama’s inauguration in January 2009). Here’s a picture of the time series price behavior of the HOUSE.DEM.2010 contract since inception:

Not surprisingly, the HOUSE.REP.2010 and HOUSE.DEM.2010 price series correlate very strongly with % Disapprove / % Approve numbers from the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll on Obama Job Approval (source: http://bit.ly/lS4ZF):

Obama_job_approval

There are also SENATE.REP.2010 and SENATE.DEM.2010 contracts which assess the odds of Republican versus Democratic control of the Senate after the midterm election; given the fact that only 1/3 of the Senate turns over ever two years, it is not surprising, given the size of the current Democratic majority in the senate, that the SENATE.REP.2010 last traded today at only 17 and the SENATE.DEM.2010 traded at 73.  However, it is interesting that the SENATE.NEITHER.2010 contract (which pays off 100 intrade points if neither party has a majority in the Senate after the midterm election) last traded at 11.6.  There are also Senate contracts that assess the odds of how many seats the GOP will have in the wake of the midterm election; the market’s current assessment is that the odds that the GOP will have 47 or more seats is 62%.  The takeaway from these data points is that while the Democrats will hold the Senate, their majority will be substantially weakened.

For more information concerning the topic of “prediction markets”, I recommend an article entitled “Prediction Markets“ by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz that appeared a few years ago in Journal of Economic Perspectives (Vol. 18, No. 2 (Spring 2004), pp. 107-126).