The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 70.1, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 29.8 (compared with 69 and 31.4 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 338-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Only North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) qualifies as a swing state according to my criterion on contract pricing and the allocation of Electoral College votes.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 345.4 to 192.6 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 7, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (338): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 69, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 31.4 (compared with 64.2 and 35.0 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 338-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Florida (27 Electoral College votes) and Virginia (13 Electoral College Votes) are back in Mr. Obama’s corner, leaving only North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) as a swing state.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 339.7 to 198.3 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 6, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (338): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 64.2, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 35.0 (compared with 67.9 and 32.0 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama holds a 298-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The “swing” states remain Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Virginia (13 Electoral College Votes), and North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 339.7 to 198.3 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 5, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (298): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 67.9 , whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 32.0 (compared with 68.3 and 32.9 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 298-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Florida (27 Electoral College votes) and Virginia (13 Electoral College Votes) have moved back into “swing” state status with North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 333.2 to 204.8 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 4, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (298): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 68.3, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 32.9 (compared with 67.4 and 32.6 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 338-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Florida (27 Electoral College votes) has moved back into Obama’s column. At this point, the only “swing” state currently left is North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 333.2 to 204.8 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 3, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (338): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 67.4, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 32.6 (compared with 64.3 and 35 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update), so in terms of the overall contracts, the odds favor Obama by a 2:1 margin.

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 311-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Florida (27 Electoral College votes) has moved from Obama’s column back into the “swing” state category, but has been replaced by Nevada (5 Electoral College votes) and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes). Besides Florida, the other “swing” state currently is North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 331.2 to 206.8 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 2, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (311): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 64.3, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 35 (compared with 64.3 and 35.7 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 313-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, has “picked up” Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) and Florida (25 Electoral College votes). The current “swing” states include Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), with Nevada and Ohio leaning strongly toward Obama (with prices of 55 and 53.5 respectively).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 336 to 202 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: October 1, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (313): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4)New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The Economist has launched a website called “The Global Electoral College”. How this actually works is described in an article on economist.com entitled “Global Electoral College, Obama or McCain, who do you want?“: “The Economist has redrawn the electoral map to give all 195 of the world’s countries (including the United States) a say in the election’s outcome. As in America, each country has been allocated a minimum of three electoral-college votes with extra votes allocated in proportion to population size. With over 6.5 billion people enfranchised, the result is a much larger electoral college of 9,875 votes. But rally your countrymen—a nation must have at least ten individual votes in order to have its electoral-college votes counted. There are few countries whose votes in the Global Electoral College are a foregone conclusion. So the winner is unlikely to be decided by a small number of “swing countries”. Rather, they will have to cobble together a coalition of small, medium and large nations. (A campaign stop in Beijing is recommended, as well as a tour of Africa.) Voting in the Global Electoral College will close at midnight London time on November 1st, when the candidate with most electoral-college votes will be declared the winner.” What this online poll reveals more than anything else are the political preferences of Economist subscribers from all around the globe. Apparently with that group, McCain isn’t particularly popular, since the latest tally is 8,192 global electoral college votes for Obama, and only 3 for McCain. So far, no Iraqis or Iranians have registered their votes online, so Obama and McCain are tied at 0% in both of these countries. However, Obama has an 83/17 edge right now in Afghanistan, which is pretty close to his 79/21 “lead” in the United States. The only country in the world right now which is pro-McCain is Andorra (62/38 in favor), which is the current source of McCain’s 3 global electoral college votes!]]>

The Economist has launched a website called “The Global Electoral College”. How this actually works is described in an article on economist.com entitled “Global Electoral College, Obama or McCain, who do you want?“:

“The Economist has redrawn the electoral map to give all 195 of the world’s countries (including the United States) a say in the election’s outcome. As in America, each country has been allocated a minimum of three electoral-college votes with extra votes allocated in proportion to population size. With over 6.5 billion people enfranchised, the result is a much larger electoral college of 9,875 votes. But rally your countrymen—a nation must have at least ten individual votes in order to have its electoral-college votes counted.

There are few countries whose votes in the Global Electoral College are a foregone conclusion. So the winner is unlikely to be decided by a small number of “swing countries”. Rather, they will have to cobble together a coalition of small, medium and large nations. (A campaign stop in Beijing is recommended, as well as a tour of Africa.) Voting in the Global Electoral College will close at midnight London time on November 1st, when the candidate with most electoral-college votes will be declared the winner.”

What this online poll reveals more than anything else are the political preferences of Economist subscribers from all around the globe. Apparently with that group, McCain isn’t particularly popular, since the latest tally is 8,192 global electoral college votes for Obama, and only 3 for McCain. So far, no Iraqis or Iranians have registered their votes online, so Obama and McCain are tied at 0% in both of these countries. However, Obama has an 83/17 edge right now in Afghanistan, which is pretty close to his 79/21 “lead” in the United States. The only country in the world right now which is pro-McCain is Andorra (62/38 in favor), which is the current source of McCain’s 3 global electoral college votes!

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 64.1, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 35.7 (compared with 62.1 and 38 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 273-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Virginia has (just barely) fallen from the Obama column; this is the only change from yesterday. The current “swing” states include Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), with Virginia, Nevada and Ohio leaning strongly toward Obama (with prices of 54.5, 54.4, and 54 respectively) and Florida and North Carolina nearly tied.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 330.6 to 207.4 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 30, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (273): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4)New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)