The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 62.1, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 38 (compared with 58.2 and 41.6 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 286-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, Mr. Obama has “picked up” New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes) and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes), whereas Mr. McCain has “re-lost” North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes); North Carolina has slid back into “swing” state status. The other remaining states which have “swing” state status today include Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), and Ohio (20 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 325.5 to 212.5 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 29, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (286): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4)New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 58.2, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 41.6 (compared with 57.8 and 41.8 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 269-200 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The only change from yesterday is that North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) has (barely) moved back into Mr. McCain’s column. This leaves Florida (27 Electoral College votes), Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) as the “swing” states du jour.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 325.5 to 212.5 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 28, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (200): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 57.8, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 41.8 (compared with 56.9 and 42.2 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts now imply that Mr. Obama holds a 269-185 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Although Mr. Obama has not increased his Electoral College total since yesterday, both Florida (27 Electoral College votes) and North Carolina (15 Electoral College votes) have now moved out of Mr. McCain’s column and assumed “swing state” status, along with Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes). As I noted yesterday, it was apparent that Florida was on the verge of becoming a “swing” state, so this change does not come as a surprise.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 310 to 228 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 27, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (185): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 56.9, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 42.2 (compared with 56.7 and 43.5 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 269-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Based upon this criterion, Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) would be considered “swing” states. However, Virginia (current price: 55), New Hampshire (current price: 54), and Ohio (current price: 53.4) are definitely leaning Mr. Obama’s way. Nevada is pretty much split down the middle between the two candidates (NEVADA.DEM’s price is 48, compared with NEVADA.REP’s price of 49.8). Also, I could help but notice that Florida is on the cusp of becoming a “swing” state; currently FLORIDA.DEM’s price is 44, compared with FLORIDA.REP’s price of 55.1).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 310 to 228 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 26, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 56.7, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 43.5 (compared with 54.6 and 44.9 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 269-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). As was the case yesterday, I continue to put Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), New Hampshire (4 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes) into the “swing” state category based upon this criterion.

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 307.8 to 230.2 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 25, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 54.6 , whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 44.9 (compared with 51.6 and 47.9 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 269-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). Since yesterday, the prices of the NEWHAMPSHIRE.DEM and NEWHAMPSHIRE.REP contracts have changed enough so that at 55 and 49 respectively, I would now put New Hampshire 4 Electoral College votes) back into the “swing” state category along with Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com is unchanged from yesterday, as it continues to give Mr. Obama a 309 to 229 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 24, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (269): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 51.6, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 47.9 (compared with 52.2 and 47respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 273-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The “swing” states continue to include Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com reports a marginal change from yesterday, now giving Mr. Obama a 309 to 229 advantage over Mr. McCain.

Addendum: September 23, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (273): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 52.2, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 47 (compared with 50.2 and 47.8 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 273-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The “swing” states continue to include Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes).

There is no change from yesterday over at FiveThirtyEight.com, which continues to give Mr. Obama a 311.5 to 226.5 advantage over Mr. McCain. As I pointed out yesterday, if the three swing states (Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia) went for Obama and all of the remaining states allocated themselves according to the manner described in the addendum below, this would result in a 311 to 227 Electoral College advantage for Mr. Obama.

Addendum: September 22, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (273): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 50.2 , whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 47.8 (compared with 50.8 and 46.1 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 273-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The “swing” states continue to include Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes).

FiveThirtyEight.com currently gives Mr. Obama a 311.5 to 226.5 advantage over Mr. McCain. If the three swing states (Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia) went for Obama and all of the remaining states allocated themselves according to the manner described in the addendum below, this would result in a 311 to 227 Electoral College advantage for Mr. Obama.

Addendum: September 21, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (273): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)

The state-by-state contracts continue to imply that Mr. Obama currently holds a 273-227 “lead” over Mr. McCain (based upon my cutoff price point of 55 for allocating Electoral College votes). The “swing” states continue to include Nevada (5 Electoral College votes), Ohio (20 Electoral College votes), and Virginia (13 Electoral College votes).

The 2008.PRES.OBAMA Intrade contract now trades at 50.8, whereas the 2008.PRES.McCAIN Intrade contract is currently trading at 46.1 (compared with 50.5 and 47.8 respectively as reported on yesterday’s update).

Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, Mr. Obama has now opened up a 306.5 to 231.5 advantage over Mr. McCain. The Gallup Daily Tracking poll is also generating numbers that are not inconsistent with what we are finding here; today, Mr. Obama’s lead of 6 points is the largest that it has been since before the two parties’ conventions in late August and early September.

Addendum: September 20, 2008 Electoral College Vote allocation

Barack Obama (273): California (55), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10)

John McCain (227): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3)